Several favorites dominate the market for the Honda Classic, but the longshots probably have the best value.
The Florida component of the PGA tour begins with The Honda Classic at the PGA National Champion Course.
There are some big names at the event as four of the world's top-10 players, all European, will be contesting the tournament - Lee Westwood (4), Paul Casey (6), Rory McIlroy (9) and Padraig Harrington (10).
Let's look at some of the longshots in this event to see if their betting odds have value.
YE Yang @ 33/1 bet365
The 2009 PGA Champion is defending a title he won last year with a record score (9 under) and arrives here in in top form, having gone close to winning last week in Phoenix (solo third), yet can be backed at 33/1. I'd expect that price with Tiger Woods or even a Phil Mickelson in the field but the betting is headed by Robert Allenby, who hasn't won on Tour for almost a decade and Rory McIlroy, in what is only his second US start. Granted, the Korean disappeared off the radar after beating Tiger in that epic battle down the stretch in golf's fourth major of the year but if last week's efforts are anything to go by, he has rediscovered all his magic and is a winner waiting-to-happen. Am I missing something here?
Having tipped up Yang's compatriot K.J. Choi in this week's European Tour event, the Malaysian Open, I can't resist a speculative each-way double on the pair this week as the place part alone pays over 45/1.
John Rollins @ 45/1 Paddy Power
I was all set to add Ben Crane to the staking plan as the Farmers Insurance Open winner finished a fine third to Yang a year ago, but he is a late scratching. In his place goes last year's runner-up Rollins whose form this season has been solid rather than spectacular. His best finish so far was 8th in the Sony Open but I'm expecting the two-time Tour winner to improve on that now he's back in the Sunshine State, where he's consistently played well. A superb ball-striker (ranked 9th in 2010), he just needs a few more putts to roll in to be in the right in the mix this week and the 45/1 could look big come Sunday.
D.J. Trahan @ 80/1 Sportingbet
Trahan is another who plays well in Florida, although that's not to say he's been playing poorly up to now - far from it! Form figures of 7-47-10-14 since the Sony are proof that there is little wrong with his game right now (ranked 19th in Ball Striking) and, while he missed the cut the last time he played here in 2007, that's more than made up for by his price.
Bubbling Under: Mathew Goggin (80/1 Stan James)
So nearly made it into the staking plan on account of his course form (tied-7th two years ago) and his impressive performance in Phoenix where he finished tied-fourth, but I'm the 'kiss of death' every time I back him. Perhaps you will have better luck?
Punters Beware: European golfers
The big four of McIlroy, Casey, Westwood and Harrington take a big chunk out of the market and it would be foolish to discount victory for either of them. However, they are plenty short enough in the betting, and two of them - Casey & Westwood - are making their course debuts.
Recommended Bets:
Y.E. Yang 1.5pts each-way @ 33/1
John Rollins 1pt each-way @ 45/1 Paddy Power
D.J. Trahan 0.5pt each-way @ 80/1 Sportingbet
Y.E. Yang and K.J. Choi (Malaysian Open) 0.25pt each-way double.
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