Cheltenham is finally here and our head racing tipster Ross Aylward has picked out the best Cheltenham tips for this afternoon's racing.
Ross is a former bookie and has been talking to his connections at Cheltenham so that he can give you the inside track on what to bet on this afternoon.
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SUPREME NOVICES TIPS
The opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30) over 2m1/2f features many people's banker of the meeting in the shape of Dunguib, who was so impressive when winning the Champion Bumper 12 month's ago.
The Favourite
Dunguib (2.00 Betfair) has looked a machine in winning all four of his hurdle starts without coming off the bridle and we know he acts on the track, so he fully deserves to be a short-priced favourite. Take out the eight flights of hurdles he will have to jump, and he'd be a near certainty as his hurdling has left something to be desired at times and was positively sloppy last time out at Leopardstown. A stronger pace ought to help him out in that department but it's still a concern and the stats geeks will point out that there has only been one winning seven-year-old in the past 10 runnings. Has there been many seven-year-olds like Dunguib, though?
The Dangers
Get Me Out Of Here took his unbeaten run to five when winning the Totesport Trophy last time and would be lining up here a short-priced favourite but for Dunguib. It's hard to imagine him finishing out of the frame, although he's no value now at 5/1 (bet365). Impressive Kempton winner Menorah (12/1 Victor Chandler) got mugged on the line in at Ascot last time but a stronger run race will play more to his strengths.
Blackstairmountain (10/1 Blue Square) was a classy sort on the flat and won his maiden hurdle with any amount in hand. He could be anything over hurdles and the drying ground is in his favour. The same can be said of dual bumper winner Dan Breen (20/1 Paddy Power), who showed plenty of speed when winning on his hurdling debut at Doncaster and the runner-up, Tanto Faz, has since boosted the form by bolting up at Stratford. Oscar Whisky (12/1 Paddypower) is two from two over hurdles but hasn't beaten much in the process.
Longshot
It's difficult to make a case for anything above 25/1 in the betting.
Key Stat
Twelve of the last 13 winners had won on their previous outing, which would rule out Menorah.
Verdict
This is Dunguib's race to lose and with a clear round of jumping and no bad luck in-running he will win. He's a very short price, though, and unless you are Harry Findlay the sensible thing to do is to back something each-way against him - or just enjoy the spectacle of course. I'm on DAN BREEN ante post at 40/1 and, although he's half those odds now, I wouldn't put anyone off backing him each-way at 20/1 with Paddy Power, who will refund the win part of your bet should Dunguib win. In fact, if you are considering backing anything against the favourite, you'd be daft not to invest with the boys from Dublin.
ARKLE TROPHY CHASE TIPS
The Irish look to have a strong hand in the Arkle Trophy Chase (2.05) over 2m with five challengers priced at 20/1 or less, including their 'big two', Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe.
The Favourite
Of the pair, the poisoned chalice of favouritism (see key stat) is almost certainly going to be carried by Captain Cee Bee (10/3 William Hill), who is no stranger to festival success having won the Supreme Novices' two years ago. He's had his problems since but he's won two of his three chase starts and might be unbeaten but for falling at Leopardstown when upsides and travelling better than Sizing Europe. He also made an error at the final fence when winning at Naas in February, so backers might want to hide behind the sofa if he's in contention approaching the last at Cheltenham.
The Dangers
Some people think Sizing Europe (11/2 Coral) would have still won at Leopardstown had Captain Cee Bee stood up but they are in the minority and I'm not one of them. That said, his trainer Henry de Bromhead is convinced he wasn't at his best that day and the break he's had since will have done him the world of good as he's best fresh.
His position as second favourite has been usurped recently by the well-backed Somersby (4/1 bet365), who jumped like a buck when winning at Sandown in December, his second win over fences from two starts. Third to Go Native and Medermit in last season's Supreme Novices', he has the potential to be top-class over the bigger obstacles, although he is considered more of a 3m prospect by his trainer Henrietta Knight and might therefore find things happening a bit too quick. In which case, Riverside Theatre (8/1 Coral) might be the pick of the British contenders. Having shown lots of promise over hurdles, he has landed his first two chase starts without breaking sweat and has beaten some useful rivals in the process. Interestingly, Knight rates him a bigger danger than Ireland's big two.
The Irish are also represented by Sportsline (8/1 Coral) and Osana (16/1 Totesport) who are far from mugs and can be given a chance in a far from vintage renewal of this race.
Longshot
I tipped up and backed Kangaroo Court ante post (as well as Long Run!) at 66/1 and, although yet to be confirmed a definite runner, he is still the most interesting outsider and deserves to be shorter than 25/1 (Ladbrokes) based on his two chase wins. If the ground was genuinely good on the first day (unlikely), I'd be quite excited about his chance.
Key Stat
A race for fancied runners - but not favourites. Since Waterloo Boy scored at 20/1 in 1989, only one winner has started bigger than 9/1, although only one of those has been clear market leader.
Verdict
This race is always run at a blistering pace and tests horses ability to jump at speed, so can how can Captain Cee Bee be favourite given his record? I'll be taking him on for sure but finding one to beat him is no easy matter. Obviously, I hope Kangaroo Court runs but the one I keep coming back to is RIVERSIDE THEATRE. He was only just behind Somersby over hurdles at Aintree last spring and he's a better horse now. Simply electric on his chase debut at Newbury in November, he is clearly best fresh so it's in his favour he hasn't run since winning at Kempton's Christmas meeting. At 8/1 at Coral, he is the right price too.
WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE
A maximum field of 24 runners go to post for the top handicap chase of the whole meeting, the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase over 3m1/2f (2.40).
The Favourite
Alan King, successful with the novice Fork Lightning in 2004, is aiming to strike with another first-season chaser in Bensalem. The lightly-raced seven-year-old runs here off a mark of 143 and King has made no secret of the fact he thinks his horse is well-handicapped, prompting bookmakers to slash him into favouritism - he's now settled around the 5/1 mark (11/2 Paddy Power). A game winner from a useful type at Plumpton in November, he has performed with credit in defeat on all his subsequent runs and a two length defeat by the top novice Diamond Harry (gave 3lb) last time out represents top notch form. His backers will have to take a relaxed view about his jumping, though, as he was made plenty of mistakes last time and fell the time before that (close up second at the time). He goes on a wide range of going.
The Dangers
The Package (6/1 Sportingbet), trained by David Pipe who won the 2008 renewal with An Accordion, is an obvious danger and, given his connections, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him backed into favouritism. While still a novice, he has had plenty of chasing experience, including in good handicaps, the latest of which he won in good style here in December. He's unraced since but that has probably been the plan all along to preserve a handicap mark which remains lenient, despite a 9lb rise (carries 10st 7lb here). He's undoubtedly quirky (hangs both ways under pressure) but is highly talented at the same time.
Ogee (11/1 Paddy Power) is another who looks well-treated on 10st 5lb, although Cheltenham might not be his ideal track. Theatrical Moment (12/1 Coral) represents last year's Jonjo O'Neil, who sent out Wichita Lineman to win last year, and arrives here in top form having won his last two starts. He too is under the 11st threshold on 10st 12lb - none of the last 10 winners have carried more than that weight.
Last year's Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir winner Character Building (12/1 Betfred) is respected but looks to have his fair share of weight, as does Game Spirit Chase runner-up Niche Market (16/1 general).
Longshot
Paul Nicholls has yet to win this event, with many of his runners handicapped up to the hilt by the time they get to this meeting. However, his Kicks For Free (25/1 Stan James) has been dropped a few pounds by the handicapper since the start of the season and he is proven on the track having been touched off in the Coral Cup two years ago.
Key Stat
Apart from 2007 winner Joes Edge (50/1), the other eight winners in the last nine runnings went off at no bigger than 8/1.
Verdict
It all revolves around favourite Bensalem. If he puts in a clear round, he must go close and reports that a sheepskin noseband has improved his jumping at home will encourage backers. However, at the odds, I just prefer THE PACKAGE, who can be his own worse enemy at times but impressed when winning a decent handicap at the track last time. Timmy Murphy will have to produce him late and cajole him with kid gloves but I can still see him swinging on the bridle coming at the last, when we can always hit the lay button to cover our stakes. His stable is on fire and David Pipe makes him his nap of the meeting which will do for me. Snap up Sportingbet's 6/1 as I can the front two in the market exchanging places.
CHAMPION HURDLE TIPS
Go Native has a shot of landing the £1m WBX bonus by completing the Fighting Fifth/Christmas/Champion Hurdle hat-trick, but he has plenty of challengers in a wide-open race.
The Favourite
A top novice last season when beating Medermit to land the Supreme Novices' Hurdle here, Go Native (9/2 Ladbrokes) has quickly made the transition to the top of the hurdling tree with wins in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle (a race won by last year's Champion Hurdle winner Punjabi) and the Christmas Hurdle, where he hung on narrowly from the fast-finishing Starluck after idling on the run-in. He's clearly got his quirks, like many good horses, and will have to be produced late by Paul Carberry (no better jockey for that!), but his turn of foot could be decisive in a year that sees a large chunk of the contenders more blessed with stamina than speed. Good ground is ideal for him so his backers will be rubbinng their hands at the news the track has not been re-watered since last week.
The Dangers
Where to start? Last year's winner Punjabi (15/2 Blue Square) and runner-up Celestial Halo (9/1 general) have not much done much to advertise the form since. New kid on the block and last year's Triumph winner Zaynar blotted his copybook last time out at Kelso when turned over at 1/14 and is now as big as 10/1 with Stan James. He's much better than that and cheekpieces will be re-applied for the first time since last year's festival, which might buck his ideas up.
Medermit has been well-backed ante post (small interest myself at 16/1) after beating Punjabi at Haydock and his trainer Alan King is talking up his chances, although he's now into single figures (9/1 Coral). If you fancy him, you've also got to like Khyber Kim (8/1 Coral) who has twice beaten Medermit into third this season - the Greatwood Hurdle in November and back here in the Boylesports.com Hurdle the following month. He hasn't run since but goes well fresh and needs only to find a little more to win. Starluck (14/1 Victor Chandler) was also an easy winner here in October so cannot be left out of the equation in a truly wide-open affair.
Solwhit was only declared a definite runner on Sunday after coming through a course of antibiotics. He will do well to win after such a troubled preparation. Similarly, Binocular needeed the vet's attention last week to make the line up and, besides, wasn't quite good enough in this race last year.
Longshot
It's difficult to envisage any of the outsiders muscling their way into the frame.
Key Stat
Festival form is king as Punjabi last year became only the third winner in the past 20 years to have been to the festival before without being successful.
Verdict
Of the four showcase races, this has become the hardest to call with several what you might call surprise winners since the days of Istabraq. That said, the winner will surely come from the top half dozen in the betting and, of these, the one that still represents a bit of value is KHYBER KIM at 8/1 with Coral. He's undoubtedly quirky but looks to have turned over a new leaf this season and has only to reproduce the form he showed when winning here in December to be bang in the mix. That's no given as his March-April form figures are '0400', but his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is sounding even more bullish than normal and he's worth chancing at the odds. Go Native scares me to death, though, and looks a back-to-lay proposition at 7/2 on Betfair as he'll almost certainly be trading much shorter at some point.