We walk you through the top tips for the last day of this year's Festival
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GOLD CUP TIPS
Kauto Star and Denman have swapped first and second placings in the last two Gold Cups and most people are expecting them to fight out the finish in this year's renewal (3.20), but they are wrong to see it as a two-horse race.
The Favourite
What's left to be said about Kauto Star that hasn't already been said? The outstanding chaser of his generation and twice a winner of this race has that rare commodity of speed and stamina and has looked better than ever this season - confounding all those people who wrote him off after his Gold Cup defeat in 2008 - when winning an historic fourth King George in December by a truly sensational 36 lengths.
That's not the first time he's made history as last season he became the first horse to retain the Gold Cup with an emphatic 13-length success over Denman, thus taking the score to 1-1 in meetings between them, and this year's race was shaping up as the 'decider' until Denman crashed out in spectacular fashion in his warm-up race. Odds against before that race, Kauto is now quite rightly odds-on, with Sportingbet alone in offering him at 8/11 (4/6 general). He does have some history against him, though, as there have been only two winners as old as ten in the last 20 years, and none in the last 10 years. However, there haven't been many ten-year-olds like him.
The Dangers
Let's start with Denman, who has now come a cropper with horrendous blunders in twice in his last three starts. Last time, he was in the process of not running very well anyway, although it's worth noting he finished second in last years' Gold Cup after an even more lacklustre warm-up performance at Kempton, and his trainer Paul Nicholls reports him to have tightened up physically and mentally since. Therefore, it's not impossible he could regain his crown - a general 4/1 chance - although he will need to be back to his brilliant best and, even if was, he might still find Kauto Star too good. Essentially a soft ground horse, any rain that falls between now and Friday is in his favour.
Imperial Commander (8/1 bet365), most people's idea of the biggest danger to the big two, is a real course specialist, having won four of five chase starts at Cheltenham (only defeat when below his best due to a back problem). He is yet to win over 3m and this time last year the doubt over him staying the trip persuaded connections to sidestep the Gold Cup to run in the Ryanair, which he won impressively. However, his reappearance run in the Betfair Chase, in which he ran a below-par Kauto Star to an inch, has dispelled such doubts and the fact he hasn't run since flopping in the King George (a similar performance last season didn't stop him winning the Ryanair) is a big plus as he's best fresh. His jumping was iffy at Haydock and at Kempton, but he's hardly touched a twig round here.
Cooldine (8/1 general - 9/1 Betfair) marked himself a future Gold Cup winner when destroying the opposition in last year's RSA Chase and looked to be coming to hand last time when beaten a neck by Joncol in the Irish Hennessy. He does have loads to find with the big two on the ratings, though.
Longshot
Tricky Trickster (16/1 William Hill), a lightly-raced seven-year-old who loves a stamina test, will be staying on better than most and, while this race is being used as a prep for the Grand National, he is worth considering without the big two (5/1 with Coral).
Key Stat
None of the usual key stats for the Gold Cup seem to apply to this year's field, and Kauto Star is already a real trends-buster.
Verdict
It will take a monumental performance to lower Kauto Star's colours and he simply has to be selection, providing the ground doesn't deteriorate too much. While Kauto goes on soft ground, he's surely better on a faster surface - it's no coincidence his top five races on ratings were all on no worse than good to soft. Much depends on how much of the forecast rain gets in before the race on Friday but on anything worse than 'good to soft', I would consider switching my allegiance to IMPERIAL COMMANDER as, bar a revitalised Denman (??), he is the one horse who can beat Kauto.
TRIUMPH HURDLE TIPS
Even at the start of this month, the Triumph Hurdle (1.30) looked an open heat with nothing having taken a firm grip on the market, and there are still plenty who could make an impression.
The Favourite
Alaivan just about deserves to be favourite (4/1 best with bet365) on his overall hurdles form and the fact he was near Group class over middle distances on the flat. After making an eye-catching winning debut at Gowran Park in December, he went off at 4/9 for a Leopardstown Grade 2 just 15 days later but, having been taken on for the lead, he had no answer to Carlito Brigante (rated 36lb inferior on the flat), who won by 11 lengths. However, he was back on song at Fairyhouse in February, winning by an easy 17 lengths. Certainly, he looks Ireland's best chance in a race they haven't done particularly well in (just four winners in the past 20 years).
The Dangers
On Leopardstown form, Carlito Brigante (5/1 William Hill) must have a great chance of finishing in front of Alaivan again. He travelled supremely well that day, suggesting there was no fluke about the win, and he was again impressive in his prep, the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh, staying on strongly for a six-length win. Good ground would be ideal for him.
The home challenge is headed by Paul Nicholl's Advisor (8/1 Betfred), who travelled well when winning at Ascot last time and clearly stays the trip well, although the form of his two wins doesn't add up to much. Soldatino (9/1 Stan James) has less experience after a solitary run in this country over hurdles (a runaway victory at Kempton on soft ground) but could be the better horse. He was a bit of a tearaway in France but his trainer Nicky Henderson, a master with juveniles, has taught him to settle and that could be the making of him.
Secant Star (9/1 Ladbrokes) is a similar type to Soldatino in that he's ex-French and has looked good since being switched to his current trainer Willie Mullins. He is considered more of a chasing type, however, and those sorts don't tend to win the Triumph. A similar comment applies to Me Voici, a gorgeous looking horse who is a future Gold Cup winner if I've ever seen one. His participation depends on rain and lots of it.
Longshot
Those looking for an outsider could do worse than Westlin' Winds (14/1 William Hill), winner of his first two starts before finding the smart Mille Chief (who was getting 7lb) too good at Kempton last time.
Key Stat
Eleven of the past 12 winners had been 'first past the post' last time out and, since the introduction of the Fred Winter, all five winners have come from the first four in the betting.
Verdict
Shocks are becoming rarer in this race and I'm convinced the finish will be fought out by those at the head of the market. The key factor is the ground which, if the forecast is correct, could be riding softer than the current good to soft, good in places. That would be a serious negative for Carlito Brigante but a positive for Alaivan and Soldatino - I don't think Advisor is quite good enough. I've a slight doubt over Alaivan's ability to handle the hustle and bustle of the festival, so I'm going to put my faith in that man Henderson getting another tune out of SOLDATINO, who looks a solid investment at 9/1 with Stan James.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES HURDLE TIPS
This is the sixth running of the Albert Bartlett Hurdle (2.40) and it is shaping up into a decent renewal with a good mix of unexposed types and those with top-class staying hurdle form already in the book.
The Favourite
The Tom George-trained Tell Massini definitely falls into the latter category having won three from three over hurdles, including two Grade 2 successes at Cheltenham. His form stands up to the closest scrutiny as the horse he beat by eight lengths here in December, Reve de Sivola (giving 7lb), finished second in Wednesday's Neptune Novices', while he had more in hand than the official margin of two and a half lengths over the unreliable but talented Kennel Hill when upped to 3m the following month. After that success, his stamina for this 3m trip cannot be questioned and he looks a worthy favourite at 4/1 (bet365), although he has never raced on anything other than soft ground.
The Dangers
Willie Mullins is leaving nothing to chance with as many as four runners, headed by Enterprise Park (6/1 William Hill), who has yet to be seriously tested in two starts, including a Grade 3 at Limerick last time, and hails from a good family (Risk Of Thunder, The Listener, Fork Lightning). All three of those made their name as chasers and the suspicion is that he will not come into his own until tackling bigger obstacles next season. His best form has come in the mud.
Mullins is also set to run Quel Esprit (8/1 Ladbrokes), providing he is none the worse for his fall in the Neptune, Fionnegas (12/1 Betfred), who chased home Dunguib on his latest start, and the outsider Arvika Ligeonniere.
Trainer Robin Dickin is not used to success at this level, but his Restless Harry (7/1 Paddy Power) has already lowered the colours of some well-touted in-form novices from top stables when landing a Grade 2 in good style over 2m41/2f here in January on his latest outing. His previous Challow second to Reve De Sivola leaves him with a bit to find with Tell Massini, though, and his two worst runs by far came when the ground was good.
Both Shinrock Paddy (8/1 Boylesports) and The Betchworth Kid (10/1 Paddy Power) give the impression they will relish the step up to 3m and are others in to consider in a race with plenty of strength in depth.
Longshot
Cappa Bleu, an impressive winner of the Foxhunter, would not have had this race as his target at the start of the season but, after his confidence-restoring hurdles last month (second), he could go well at a big price (20/1 Coral).
Key Stat
Only five runnings to go on, but all five previous winners had finished first or second last time out.
Verdict
All those currently at single figure prices would prefer some ease in the ground and conditions will play a big part. In the hope the ground doesn't deteriorate too much, I'm going to swerve the lot of them and take a chance on THE BETCHWORTH KID, who has done nothing wrong in three runs over hurdles, with a victory and two placed efforts to his name. Granted, he has to improve on his bare form but his trainer Alan King (one winner, one third in this race) is convinced he is crying out for this trip as he was a thorough stayer on the flat. Owned by a syndicate which includes professional gambler Henry Ponsonby, he could go off well-backed, so the 10/1 with Paddy Power is worth snapping up.
FOXHUNTER CHASE TIPS
The winner of the Foxhunter Chase (4.00) normally emerges from the point-to-point field but this year’s favourite Roulez Cool could set a new trend.
The Favourite
While Roulez Cool has run in points this season (winning twice), he received his grounding in France, where he was a smart junior chaser, winning a listed chase at Auteuil in 2007. Since coming to Britain, he has made a big impression under rules, winning a Bangor handicap chase on his debut before finishing runner-up at Uttoxeter off a mark of 142 a month later. That level of form is far superior to anything his rivals have achieved in the past year and his rider, Sam Waley-Cohen (rider of Long Run) is used to the big occasion. A worthy favourite at 3/1 (bet365).
The Dangers
Last year’s third Baby Run (13/2 Coral) must come into reckoning again, although he didn’t seem to quite get home last year. Trust Fund (8/1 Stan James) won the Aintree Foxhunters’ last season and went on to complete a hunter case hat-trick with a hard-fought narrow victory over Take The Stand (66/1 Sportingbet) over this trip here in May. He’s still lightly-raced for a veteran.
The mare Sericina (12/1 Coral) has yet to come off the bit in three victories this term, most recently when winning on her hunter chase debut on soft ground at Taunton. She was won on a sounder surface so is one for the shortlist.
The first Irish-trained winner was in 1983 but there have been just four since. The key Irish trial is the hunter chase at Leopardstown in early February, won this year by Kilty Storm (16/1 Sportingbet). He wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much, though. Dun Doire (14/1 Blue Square), a former festival winner, is another Irish contender who must be taken seriously, along with veteran On The Net (33/1 Betfred).
Longshot
Last year’s runner-up, Turthen (20/1 Victor Chandler), won in much the fastest time of the day at the mid-February meeting at Milborne St Andrew, where 2003 Foxhunter winner completed his preparation.
Key Stat
Fourteen of the last 19 winners were aged between seven and nine, and six of the last nine winners have gone off at 14/1 or bigger.
Verdict
Roulez Cool ought to go well, although a recent injury scare, albeit a minor one, wouldn’t have helped his cause and he’s plenty short enough at around 3/1. Take him on with last year’s runner-up, TURTHEN. Still only nine, he may be open to further improvement and looks over-priced at 20/1.
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