Two aces on the mound? Look carefully....
Today at 3:45pm the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will take on the San Francisco Giants at AT&T ballpark, home of the Giants. The two starting pitchers both have incredible win-loss records so far this year and it almost looks like a battle of two aces. Matt Palmer, of the Angels, at 6-0 takes on Tim Lincecum, of the Giants at 6-1 in this interleague matchup.
However, a closer look at the two pitchers shows that Lincecum is a more quality pitcher than Palmer even though Palmer's record, slightly better, suggests otherwise.
Lincecum, a righty, has an ERA of 2.66 and he has not given up more than two earned runs in an outing since May 15th, over a month ago now. In his last outing he blanked the Oakland Athletics which isn't terribly hard to do, but in doing so Lincecum pitched the complete game and only surrendered 7 hits and 1 walk in earning the win.
Palmer, another righty, hasn't pitched terrible lately but a degree of 'luck' seems to have inflated his win-loss record. He gave up 10 hits in his last outing and 3 walks in just 6 innings pitched but he was lucky his team's offense bailed him out for the win. In the outing previous to that he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball and deserved the win but didn't get it so maybe the good luck balances the bad in this case but the previous three outings before that were all average to weak.
He got pulled on May 24th after giving up 4 earned runs in just 4.2 innings with 5 hits and 2 walks surrendered in a fortunate 'no decision' - keeping his record perfect. On May 19th he pitched 5 innings and gave up 7 hits and 5 earned runs and his offense bailed him out again for the win. Against Boston on May 13th he pitched a complete game and gave up four runs, which is hardly stellar, but got lucky once again as his team's bats handed him the win.
Palmer's ERA is 4.11 so don't get distracted by his 6-0 record: he is not as good as Lincecum.
Our recommendation is to pick the Giants to win who are really good in their home ball park anyways. Getting good odds on them will require some fishing around but Paddy Power has them at -165 (20/33) at this point, the best currently available nearing 2pm ET.
Alternatively, you could pick the Giants to cover a modest -1.5 spread at PlayersOnly and get odds of +120 (6/5).
Registration for either site is free and PlayersOnly offers a 10% bonus on your first deposit which, on $100, would entitle you to two free $5 bets.
