Evaluating the chances for racers in the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona.
Brad Keselowski stunned everyone where he won the NASCAR race at Talladega in April. After all, he is a rookie, with very limited Sprint Cup experience, and he was racing for a low budget part time team. Had Keselowski been listed with individualized odds instead of being part of the field bet, he probably would have approached a dividend of about 500 or even more.
Mind you, Keselowski isn't the first longshot nor will he be the last to win on a restrictor plate track. Derrike Cope's victory in the 1990 Daytona 500 will likely go down as the biggest upset in history. Cope showed little heading into that race and even less since. He is a perennial also ran now in NASCAR's B series.
Ward Burton's victory in the 2001 Daytona 500 was a stunner and Michael Waltrip has won 4 restrictor plate races including 2 Daytona 500s, although he has never been able to win on any other type of track. In that first victory in 2000, Waltrip was listed at 100/1 or more by most bookies. It's true that certain drivers like Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart are great drivers on restrictor plate tracks but as has been mentioned, talent often means little when deciding who to bet.
To understand why longshots are often great on restrictor plate tracks in NASCAR one needs to understand its history. In 1987, Bobby Allison blew a tire heading into the tri-oval at Talladega Super speedway, injuring spectators and almost killing the driver. The speeds of over 200 mph were deemed too fast to be safe so NASCAR tried to slow cars down and in 1988 forced teams to install plates that restricted air flow to the engine, thus reducing speed.
By all accounts the plates reduce horse power from 750h to 430 hp and cut speed from close to 210 mph to about 180 mph. By cutting the speeds NASCAR also managed to bunch up the cars together. Prior to restrictor plate racing, drivers were racing at break neck speeds and certain stars like Cale Yarborough, Richard Petty, Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip were winning the vast majority of races at Daytona and Talladega as their superior cars and driving ability allowed them to pull away from the field. With the restrictor plates, however, it's impossible to pull away. Consequently, drivers race in a bunched up fashion and it's not unusual to see a driver leading one lap, dropping back to 30th on the next lap then being back up top a couple of laps later.
The key to winning on restrictor plate tracks is fourfold. First, the drivers need to draft other cars to stay within contact of the field. If a driver loses the draft they will invariably lose a lap quickly. Second, the driver needs to avoid the big wreck. In almost every race a major crash will occur that will often take out up to half of the field. If a driver can avoid "the big one" and be around at the end, they are ahead of the game. Third, the driver needs to position himself well with 2 laps to go. Rarely do drivers who are leading with 3 or more laps left win the race on a restrictor plate track and drivers who are not in the right position on the track often find it difficult to overcome bad positioning.
Mind you, if a driver can draft the right person they can make up a lot of positions in no time as was witnessed with Brad Keselowski when he drafted Carl Edwards when Edwards was vaulting to the lead. Lastly, the driver needs luck and lots of it. In the 42 restrictor plate races to date about 10 were won by the most worthy driver. The rest were won by drivers who got their cars into position and were able to win due to racing luck. Even Matt Kenseth in this year's Daytona 500 won more because of luck than driving skill.
With that in mind, it's not surprising that the odds for all drivers on restrictor plate tracks are higher than on non restrictor plate tracks. In fact, it's not unusual for the favourite on a restrictor plate track to be double digits. So as mentioned restrictor plate racing is a crapshoot. The strategy I like to employ, therefore, in restrictor plate racing is to take a likely choice, a couple of medium priced choices and a longshot or two.
It's also important to note that qualifying and practice mean next to nothing for handicapping on restrictor plate tracks although both are imperative to proper handicapping on other tracks. With that in mind, here are some suggestions for Saturday's Coke Zero 400 at Daytona.
Low priced choices:
Tony Stewart - won the race in 2005 and 2006 and seems to have the best car in NASCAR today.
Jeff Gordon - hasn't won a restrictor plate race in ages, but has one of the best records on restrictor plate tracks among current drivers and has been in contention to the end in both of this year's restrictor plate races.
Medium priced choices:
Kevin Harvick - loves these types of tracks and was the Daytona 500 winner 2 years back. Richard Childress has struggled this year but Harvick has the skill to contend for the win.
Ryan Newman - Tony Stewart's team-mate won the Daytona 500 last year and was in contention in both restrictor plate races this year. It wouldn't be surprising to see him vying for the win.
Kurt Busch - Has yet to win on a restrictor plate track but he is always in contention. This year Busch is at the top of his game and he could prove a surprise.
Longshot choices:
David Ragan - the sophomore has yet to win but he did surprise at Talladega in the Nationwide series. He has the skill, the desire and at odds of about 50.0 is worth a shot.
Juan Montoya - The former F1 driver not surprisingly has been spectacular on road courses and average on others but he loves restrictor plate racing and has the style to win. Montoya is as good as anyone else out there and at a dividend around 40.0 is worth a shot.
Michael Waltrip - as mentioned Waltrip won 4 races when driving for Earnhardt racing but has stunk in his own car. Mind you he has demonstrated some ability this year and it wouldn't be a total shock to see him pull off a major upset with a dividend in the 200 range.
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