James is at +450 with Stan James to win the 2010/11 MVP Award.
Lebron James is the two-time running Most Valuable Player in the NBA but he is an underdog to win the coveted and prestigious individual award again in the upcoming season. One reason for that is the emergence of Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City and another reason for that is James' change of venue.
Here are the odds for the top 8 favorites to win the MVP Award this upcoming season:
- Kevin Durant +300 Blue Square
- Kobe Bryant +350 William Hill
- Lebron James +450 Stan James
- Dwight Howard +750 Stan James
- Dwyane Wade +850 Blue Square
- Carmelo Anthony +1100 William Hill
- Chris Paul +1600 Stan James
- Derrick Rose +2000 Blue Square
James in Miami will not be the same show as James in Cleveland mainly because the Heat have two other offensive threats of substance in Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. In Cleveland, James was the clear go-to player for offensive production and while he could still be called that in Miami, Bosh and Wade will be taking some touches away from James at the offensive end.
While having a triple threat offensively will help Miami compete as team, it is important to remember that the MVP Award is an individual award - not a team award - and it often goes to players who are overly relied on for production because the secondary and tertiary threats on the team are a clear cut below the standard. Those overly relied on players get ample opportunity to, in a way, pad their stats that stars on deeper teams do no get.
It is possible that James' offensive stats might decline a little bit next year - not due to any kind of flaw with James but just due to a decrease in reliance as the Miami Heat are deeper than the teams in Cleveland were. If his playing declines from a statistical perspective, then that can affect people's subjective impression of him, even if James remains the best player in the association in terms of pure ability at this stage in his career.
Kevin Durant is our top recommendation for the MVP Award next season and not because we consider him to be a better player than James. If Oklahoma City are going to be successful next season, they are going to have to run the offense through Durant time and time again. The other offensive threats on OKC do exist but they won't take away from Durant as much as Wade and Bosh will take away from James and while basketball is deeper than scoring, the fact remains that putting the ball in the basket goes a long way to getting you the MVP Award (Steve Nash aside).
Also, one thing about the MVP Award is that it is a subjective award that is earned by earning votes. No one has won the Award three years straight since the mid 80s when Larry Bird three-peated.
Durant did receive 4 first place votes last year and that was four more than Kobe Bryant so perhaps opinions are trending toward the Oklahoma City standout.
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