What are the odds and chances in the various divisions?
There isn't a lot of certainly when it comes to the NFL playoff picture.
Take a look at the AFC for example.
In that conference, there are two teams who have already clinched spots in the playoffs. Those are the Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Chargers. That much is certain. The rest isn't.
All of the following scenarios are good for THIS WEEEKEND, and we have calculated percentages (and a few parlays) based on an interpolation of the money line on their games this weekend as posted in the BetUS NFL betting odds.
Let's start with the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, who have won the AFC West but still have to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. How can they do that?
They can win this week against Tennessee (a 40.8% chance, based on the interpolation of their +135 underdog money line price and the Titans' -155 favorite price; BetUS odds) or tie the game.
The New England Patriots can lose to Jacksonville (a 23% chance) or have a tie.
As for the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, they can clinch the AFC East division title with:
A win on their part over the Jags (77% chance) or a tie.
A loss by the Miami Dolphins to Houston (42.6% chance) or tie by Miami.
The CINCINNATI BENGALS clinch the AFC North division title with:
A win on their part over the Kansas City Chiefs (an 86.7% chance).
A Bengal tie, along with a Baltimore Ravens loss to the Steelers (a 56.5% chance) or tie.
A Baltimore loss (56.5% chance)
Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot regardless with:
A Jacksonville Jaguars loss to the Patriots (a 77% chance) or a tie, along with a New York Jets loss to the Colts (a 67.7% chance) or tie, AND a tie in the Houston-Miami game.
The BALTIMORE RAVENS can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win on their part (a 43.5% chance) plus a Jacksonville loss (a 77% chance) or tie plus a New York Jets loss (67.7% chance) or tie (basically a 22.7% chance on the parlay, or +340).
A Baltimore win plus a Jacksonville loss or tie with New England plus a Denver loss to the Eagles (a 73.3% chance).
A Baltimore win plus a Miami loss or tie plus a Jets loss or tie plus a Denver loss.
A Baltimore tie plus a Jets loss plus a Jacksonville loss plus a Tennessee loss or tie plus the Houston-Miami game has to end in a tie (I can't calculate that high)
The DENVER BRONCOS can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win on their part over Philadelphia (a 26.7% chance) plus a Jacksonville loss or tie plus a Miami loss or tie plus a Jets loss or tie plus a Pittsburgh loss to Baltimore (a 43.5% chance) or tie. Essentially, you're looking at a parlay that represents about a 2.6% chance, or roughly 38-to-1, that the Broncos will clinch this weekend, keeping in mind of course that there are about a million teams behind them with 7-7 records.
By the way, in case you were wondering about the Colts and their chances to end the season unbeaten, assuming they are not going to roll over and play dead, they are -230 against the Jets this weekend, with the Jets at +190.
That is -210 interpolated, which comes to 67.7% chance for them to win straight-up this week. Next Sunday against Buffalo they could be a sizable road favorite, and I'm thinking the number could be around -400, so you could say that mathematically speaking, they are roughly -125 to win the next two games, although I have the feeling it should be a higher number.
Go to BetUS to bet on NFL football.