Straight up totals aren't always the most impressive statistic.

There are a lot of factors that determine success at the winter olympics and a high national population is certainly one variable that can increase a country's expected success rate.

The reason for that is because the more people you have in a country, the more likely that country is of producing an exceptional result (ie. a world class athlete).

From that perspective, let's evaluate the 6 countries that won at least 15 medals at the 2010 Vancouver Olympics and see who overchieved and who underachieved.

As not all medals are equal, We'll assign 1.5 points for a bronze medal, 2 Points for a silver medal, and 2.5 points for a gold medal.  Then we'll take the total points for each country and divide it by the population to figure out who really are the Olympic powerhouses.

1.  Norway: estimated population about 4.8 million.

9  Gold Medals (22.5 points)
8  Silver Medals (16 points)
6  Bronze Medals (9 points)
23 Total Medals (47.5 total points)

Total medal points per 1 million Norwegians: 9.896

2.  Austria: estimated population about 8.4 million.

4  Gold Medals (10 points)
6  Silver Medals (12 points)
6  Bronze Medals (9 points)
16 Total Medals (31 points points)

Total medal points per 1 million Austrians: 3.690

3.  Canada: estimated population about 34 million.

14 Gold Medals (35 points)
7  Silver Medals (14 points)
5  Bronze Medals (7.5 points)
26 Total Medals (56.5 total points)

Total medal points per 1 million Canadians: 1.662

4.  Germany: estimated population about 81.8 million.

10 Gold Medals (25 points)
13 Silver Medals (26 points)
7  Bronze Medals (10.5 points)
30 Total Medals (61.5 total points)

Total medal points per 1 million Germans: .752

5.  United States: estimated population about 309 million.

9  Gold Medals (22.5 points)
15 Silver Medals (30 points)
13 Bronze Medals (19.5 points)
37 Total Medals (72 total points)

Total medal points per 1 million Americans: .233

6.  Russian Federation: estimated population about 142 million.

3  Gold Medals (7.5 points)
5  Silver Medals (10 points)
7  Bronze Medals (10.5 points)
15 Totals Medals (28 total points)

Total medal points per 1 million Russians: .197

There are certainly other factors besides population that affect olympic medal success as both government funding for athletes and a national winter sports culture are very important as well. 

Norway, Austria, and Canada clearly have sports cultures as determined by their national climates and geographic factors and based on how well they did at Vancouver 2010, it's quite likely that funding for their athletes would be substantial.

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