Most of the world's best players gather to Paris for that city's second most prestigious tennis tournament.
The BNP Parisbas Masters event will be taking place from Paris, France this week and qualifying is almost complete. As this tournament is part of the 1000 level Masters Series (the winner gets 1000 tour ranking points) and as there are €2,750,000 at stake, the event attracts all the best stars and doubles teams in the world. Here are the favorites for the men's draw and their best prices followed by our recommendation(s):
1. Roger Federer, +250 (5/2), Stan James
2. Andy Murray, +500 (5/1), Blue Square
3. Novak Djokovic, +600 (6/1), Blue Square
4. Rafael Nadal, +700 (7/1), Blue Square
5. Juan Martin Del Potro, +1200 (12/1), Boylesports
6. Jo Wilfried Tsonga, +2000 (20/1), Boylesports
7. Nikolay Davydenko, +2000 (20/1), Boylesports
8. Robin Soderling, +2500 (25/1), Sportingbet
9. Fernando Verdasco, +4000 (40/1), Sportingbet
10. Marin Cilic, +4000 (40/1) Sportingbet
One simple fact needs to be observed from the onset: Roger Federer is not the correct pick to make here. He didn't win the US Open in September for the first time in a long time and he didn't win in Basel this past weekend either. The field has gained on Federer since his victory at Wimbledon and he and Nadal no longer have ATP men's singles tennis crushed like they used to.
The prices with Murray and Djokovic are both attractive with Blue Square. Those are the two players that won the two 500 level events this past weekend although Murray never had to play anyone better than Verdasco.
There is also value from the list above with Nikolay Davydenko and Marin Cilic. Davydenko won the last 1000 series event in Shanghai while Cilic has been coming on of late and priced at +4000 (40/1) you have got to like the price for the emerging star.
Taking the draw into consideration both Del Potro and Gonzalez have tricky anticipated second round matches. Del Potro looks like he will play Marat Safin who has really put a ton of pride into his game lately as he approaches retirement. Gonzalez may have to square off against tough serving John Isner, the player that just knocked Gonzalez out of the first round in Basel a few days ago.
Murray's draw looks clear as he will face either James Blake or Fabrice Santoro in the second round (Murray has a bye through the first round). Radek Stepanek is the anticipated 3rd round opponent for Murray but he, Stepanek, never seems to win big matches despite playing in tons of them. Murray's draw looks good to the semis and his superior conditioning should keep his legs fresh despite going the distance in Valencia.
Djokovic has Davydenko to contend with for the semis, a player who has been winning a lot of big matches lately. That anticipated match is a bit of a hang up for both players which makes Murray the best pick to make in this event. Murray has a winning record against Federer should they meet in the semifinals.
But with so many strong players and long enough odds on some of them, our recommendation is to three bet this field and whatever amount you are betting allocate it as follows: Murray 40%, Djokovic 40%, and Davydenko 20%.
With that you should have one or two players at long odds deep into the draw and with a good chance to cash in.
Go to Blue Square or Boylesports to bet on ATP tennis.