Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Australian Open 2010

For 2010, the value is not with the usual suspects.

With the ranked tennis on the ATP tour over for the season, tennis fans will have to look to the futures market for tennis betting.

While there are tour events in early 2010 before the Australian Open, for virtually all sportsbooks Melbourne's Grand Slam is the next tennis event available for betting.  With the way the last part of 2010 went, the favorites in the futures markets for Grand Slams should no longer be considered Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer.  Instead Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, and Nikolay Davydenko should be considered the favorites.

Here are the odds at this point:

1.  Roger Federer, +250 (5/2), Paddy Power
2.  Juan Martin Del Potro, +500 (5/1), Blue Square
3.  Andy Murray, +550 (11/2), Boylesports
4.  Novak Djokovic, +600 (6/1), Sportingbet
5.  Rafael Nadal, +700 (7/1), Boylesports
6.  Nikolay Davydenko, +1600 (16/1), Paddy Power

....

9.  Robin Soderling, +5000 (50/1), Sportingbet

With Federer's game starting to drop a little his odds are way too short to call for the Australian Open.  He's a threat to win for sure but at +250 (5/2) betting him is really a bad gamble as there are so many players in the field that Federer is no longer invincible against.  Nadal, of course, is the defending champion but our recommendation is to stay clear of him.  His game has been way too weak against the top players on tour lately as illustrated by the fact that he went 0-3 at the ATP World Tour Finals this past week.

That leaves Del Potro, Murray, Djokovic, Davydenko, and Soderling as candidates to pick.

My recommendation is going to be to take both Djokovic and Davydenko at this point.  Djokovic has won in Australia before, his only Slam, and Davydenko, the newly crowned world champion, is in fantastic form. 

You could sprinkle Soderling because of his huge odds and because of his solid game in the last six months.  However, Soderling lacks something, call it the 'X-factor' or a killer instinct, but he is just not quite Grand Slam title worthy.  He can beat anyone in an individual match but stringing 7 wins together to take down a Slam probably won't happen for Robin.  Still, 50 to 1 is a good price on the Swede as his true odds might be more like 15 to 1.

You couldn't really say that either Del Potro or Murray were terrible picks at this point but you can't bet every contender: the odds don't permit that.  Djokovic and Davydenko both look like better players than either Murray or Del Potro right now and they, Djokovic and Davydenko, have longer odds.

Whatever sum you are planning on betting for the Aussie at this point allocate it as follows:

Robin Soderling 5%
Nikolay Davydenko 20%
Novak Djokovic 75%

With Soderling and Davydenko providing long odds you don't have to bet them too hard to make things interesting while Djokovic needs a little extra.

Go to Sportingbet to bet on ATP tennis.

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Tags: 2010,  Aussie,  Australia,  Australian Open,  Betting,  Futures,  Melbourne,  Novak Djokovic,  Robin Soderling,  Tennis,  Tips