Nadal is the most over-rated player in the US Open market - he's just not a hard courter at this point in his career.

Rafael Nadal, when betting odds are used for insight, is considered the second favorite to win the 2010 US Open Open behind only Roger Federer.  There are some sportsbooks out there that treat Nadal and Andy Murray as co-second favorites however when you average it all out, Nadal has shorter odds than the Scot (both are +350 with BetFred).

But how many top 10 players, who were ranked in the top 10 at the time of the match, has Nadal beaten on the hard court surface in the last year?

The answer is not flattering as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a player not in the US Open field, is the only top tenner that Nadal has a victory over in a long time on hard courts.

Nadal cannot be backed with any kind of confidence to win in Flushing Meadows and his odds have TERRIBLE value.  Nadal's over-ratedness is the reason why there is value on Murray so everyone that's actually trying to make a smart pick can love the Nadal backers for helping making that possible.

Nadal's saving grace is that he is as mentally strong as they come and he won't have any kind of weak nerve in a big point or a big match.  Mind games aren't going to take him off his game either but what exactly "his game" is should be the subject of more debate as the US Open approaches.

He's a clay courter and a grass courter who has no active hard court titles at any level.  That being the case then why do people think he's going to win the US Open this year when it's the biggest hard court tournament of them all?

On the hard court, Nadal is a ghost and a black hole for bets and our recommendation is to take Andy Murray at +350 with BetFred instead.

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