Roger Federer ATP Basel 2010 Favorite

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by Shane Lambert

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(credit: ForsterFoto)

Roger Federer is the main attraction at ATP Basel with Novak Djokovic the defending champion.

ATP Basel will be starting soon as the 32 player event has been set. This is what Federer's draw could look like in the event and all in all, it has to be judged as challenging:

1st round: Federer vs Alexandr Dolgopolov

2nd round: Federer vs Janko Tipsarevic

Quarterfinals: Federer vs Thiemo De Bakker

Semifinals: Federer vs David Nalbandian

Final: Federer vs Novak Djokovic

Coverage of the tournament is available online courteousy of bet365's live streaming.

Here are the top 7 favorites in the event according to betting odds followed by my prediction and value recommendation:

Roger Federer +130 (13/10) SkyBet
Novak Djokovic +350 (7/2) bet365
Tomas Berdych +1400 (14/1) Victor Chandler
Andy Roddick +1800 (18/1) SkyBet
John Isner +2200 (22/1) bet365
David Nalbandian +2500 (25/1) SkyBet
Jurgen Melzer +2500 (25/1) Paddy Power

While Roger Federer is certainly the player most likely to win, the odds above do under-rate David Nalbandian. His current ranking is only world number 31 but that is due to a lot of missed time from injury. He enters the tournament on several weeks rest and the last time he played a 500 level ATP tournament, he won it outright back in early August (ATP Washington 2010).

Tomas Berdych is over-rated quite significantly as the Czech player has not been too impressive since making the Wimbledon final several months ago now. Jurgen Melzer is fresh of another title but having played a very competitive final on Sunday that included 2 tiebreaks you have to wonder where his fatigue level is and he's over-rated as well.

Nalbandian can be considered a value pick at 25 to 1 as +1200 looks more realistic on the Argentinian.

With Federer's draw there is not one single player that he can be viewed as a lock against and Federer backers might want to avoid betting this market due to short odds. Target Fed for straight sets victories in the early rounds instead as there may be better value in those matches than in the outright winner's market.

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