Australian Open 2010 lessons for future betting.
The 2010 Australian Open was memorable for several reasons. To name a few, Roger Federer regained a title that had eluded him for a few years, Serena Williams made a head-strong defence of her single's title, and Justine Henin proved that she was a force on tour even without much recent playing experience.
Here's some betting tips that we picked up on during the 2010 Australian Open that we'd like to pass on to you.
1. Even if Roger Federer looks weak heading into a Slam, he's going to up his game.
Roger Federer did not look great in the MONTHS leading up the Australian Open.
Heading into Melbourne, Federer had not won a title since Cincinnati back in August. He had been the favorite in every single tournament he had entered since that time but had failed to close out even just one finals victory. Federer fell in Basel, in London, in Paris, and in Doha even though he was the pre-tournament favorite for all of those events.
Since winning his last title in Cincy, Fed had surrendered first time losses to Nikolay Davydenko, Robin Soderling (exhibition play), Juan Martin Del Potro, and Julien Benneteau and that made his pre-Australian Open odds of about +300 questionable.
However, despite inferior play leading up to the Australian Open, Federer won the Aussie and he did so by defeating Murray in the final, who many felt would win his first Grand Slam title down-under.
Tip: throw short-term form out the window with Federer because when push comes to shove in Grand Slams, he'll be there.
Recommendation: take Federer's odds to win the French Open which are currently +250 (5/2) with Ladbrokes.
2. Victoria Azarenka might be a choker.
Victoria Azarenka is still young enough to be considered an up-and-comer on the women's tour. However, she almost made it big time at the 2010 Australian Open before she collapsed in her quarterfinal match against Serena Williams.
Azarenka was up a set and 4-0 in the second set against Williams and failed to close out victory. Had Azarenka won that match, she might would have had a reasonable chance to take down her first Slam.
That kind of loss can have a devastating effect on an athlete's mind and backers of Azarenka might find themselves saying a familiar phrase in the future:
"Shoulda-coulda-woulda".
Tip: avoid Azarenka in the futures markets until she beats a great player like Serena Williams, Justine Henin, Venus Williams or Kim Clijsters in a Grand Slam match. Until then Azarenka cannot be considered to be a Grand Slam threat.
3. Rafael Nadal can only be bet to win a Slam at really long odds.
Rafael Nadal never looked like a threat at the Australian Open. Even though he made the quarterfinals, everyone knew that he was going to have a tough time against Andy Murray and the result of that match was not close.
Nadal is injured now, yet again, and the fact of the matter is that you have to wonder if Nadal's career is just permanently changed now. The best approach to betting Nadal at this point is to treat him like he is the 8th ranked player on tour who specializes in clay court tournaments.
Tip: Rafael Nadal is -110 (10/11; Paddy Power) to win the French Open. A good price on Nadal might be more like +350 (7/2) and if you are thinking of betting the Spaniard, wait and hope for his odds to drift first.
4. Juan Martin Del Potro might be a one slam wonder.
Juan Martin Del Potro achieved greatness when he defeated Roger Federer in the 2009 US Open final. In fact, that victory by Del Potro is now all that has prevented Federer from holding all 4 Grand Slam titles at once.
But Del Potro appears to have gone into a bit of a lull post-US Open and he was a non-factor at the Aussie this year - sort of whimpering out to Marin Cilic in the 4th round.
Del Potro's potential is immense but unless there is a fire lit within, potential does not get actualized and Del Potro's fire may have been extinguished with the satisfaction he felt in winning the US Open.
The question to ask isn't if Del Potro is capable of great things, but when will his ambition return?
Del Potro was about +450 (9/2) pre-tournament to win the Aussie and those odds, in reality, were not even close as he only won 3 of the 7 matches necessary for victory.
This guy doesn't appear to have the drive to be an all-time great player, even if he has the tools.
Tip: don't bet Del Potro in the futures markets for Slams until he shows the drive he had during the 2009 summer hard court season.
5. Marin Cilic is a legitimate hard court threat.
Marin Cilic has produced back-to-back personal bests for Grand Slam results. In Flushing Meadows last summer Cilic made the quarters, which was the best he had done up until that point. Now Cilic has a semifinals appearance in his Slam results and that is his new personal best result.
Tip: Cilic is still young and his improvement is what you would expect from someone who has a good chance of taking down a Slam in the future.
Recommendation: sprinkle Cilic with Sky Bet to win the 2010 US Open at +2000 (20/1) and hope he continues to improve.
Go to Ladbrokes to bet on tennis futures.