Federer has won 5 US Opens however his fading form has many backing Nadal instead.

Rafael Nadal wants a career Grand Slam and to complete the feat, he needs only to win the US Open.

Nadal has never won the title in Flushing Meadows but with Roger Federer fading and with defending champion Juan Martin Del Potro out of commission, a fantastic opportunity for Nadal is ripe for the picking later this summer.

Here are the top 8 players at this point in the futures market to win the final Grand Slam of the calendar year, the 2010 US Open:

1.  Rafael Nadal +300 (3/1; Ladbrokes; F25 is your promo code)
2.  Roger Federer +300 (3/1; Boylesports)
3.  Andy Murray +494 (about 5/1; Bwin)
4.  Novak Djokovic +1000 (10/1; BetFred)

5.  Robin Soderling +1400 (14/1; Blue Square)
6.  Tomas Berdych +1400 (14/1; Blue Square)
7.  Andy Roddick +1800 (18/1; Blue Square)
8.  Nikolay Davydenko +3300 (33/1; bet365)

The clearly overrated players in this market are Federer, Berdych, Roddick, and Davydenko as they should all be at longer odds than what they have been priced at. 

With Federer, his odds are based on results from years passed but he has clearly lost his edge since winning the 2010 Australian Open.  Instead of being looked at as a key contender, Federer should be considered an outside threat and in order to make a confident value bet on him, you need odds of about +1200 (12/1), maybe longer.  Federer's price may drift out to +650 (13/2) or so during the hard court season so if you are backing Fed to win at Flushing Meadows, you are advised to wait as there may very well be a better price on the near horizon for the world number 3.

Berdych was looking good in the futures market prior to Wimbledon but that was when he was coming in at +6600 (66/1) or so in the outright winner's market.  Due to his finals appearance at the All England Club, his betting prices have shortened in the futures markets and with that his value has diminished.  He's an outside threat as well but +1400 (14/1) is too short on this player as his true odds might be more like +2500 (25/1).  Keep in mind that he doesn't close out tournaments, even when he is playing well, as he has not won a title since Munich in May 2009.

Roddick's results are really starting to taper off.  There's definitely good tennis left for the American number 1 but you have to wonder how long he will stay in the top ten as his Slam chart doesn't look strong from the last year.

Roddick fell in the third round of Wimbledon earlier this year and last year at the US Open he only made the third round.  He is redeemed a little by his impressive hard court results from the American Masters series swing earlier this year but he's nothing more than a player to keep a close eye on at this point.  If he does well in the hard court events leading up to Flushing Meadows (wins a title) then you could sprinkle him to win the US Open before his odds shorten too much but things as they are right now, +1800 is a little too short on Roddick and it is hard to envision him winning the US Open again.

Regarding Davydenko, we already know everything about this player and he does not cash in for his backers in futures markets for Slams.  He has contested 36 Slams, he's been a devastating player for years, and yet he has few prestigious titles to show for his efforts.  Davydenko has never made a Grand Slam final and despite multiple semifinal appearances, he is an underachiever in Majors.  He was the man of the moment in early 2010 as he was fresh off of a win at the World Tour Championships but then he faltered in the quarters of the Aussie, a tournament that may have been his last good chance at a Grand Slam title.  Make him +5000 in terms of true odds for the US Open and avoid him in the betting market.

The winner of the 2010 US Open should come out of one of these 3 players: Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic.  There is no rush at this point with either one of these players as they might have similar odds even after the US Open starts.  For example, Nadal was about +250 (5/2) prior to Wimbledon and he could have been backed at +400 (4/1) after the 3rd round.

Soderling is a player that can beat anyone in a heads up match but, somewhat like Berdych, Soderling fails in late rounds.  However, +1400 (14/1) is not a bad price on him as only Nadal has stood in Soderling's way in the last 2 Slams.  The Swedish player has improved and he needs to continue to improve and it would be confidence building to see him win a Masters event before the US Open, or even a 500 level tournament.  His betting odds could have some value at this point as he could be put at +1150 to win the US Open in terms of true odds.

Djokovic has been a force at Flushing Meadows before and it was Federer that stood in his way in the past.  If the Swiss Maestro continues to struggle during the hard court events that lead up to New York then Djokovic has to be taken very seriously as a title contender - more so than in years gone by.

Our recommendation at this point is to sprinkle both Soderling and Djokovic while waiting for slightly longer odds on either Murray or Nadal for a bigger bet.

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