Roger Federer.(credit:
Wikipedia.com)
There's hardly a threat in Federer's quarter at Wimbledon.
Roger Federer (+145, 29/20; SportingBet) is the number 1 seed at Wimbledon and he can therefore expect a fairly easy draw for the opening rounds. However there's always 'luck' involved as there are players in every tournament who are better than their seed or ranking suggests and you would prefer for those players to end up somewhere else besides your section.
This year at Wimbledon things have finally gone Federer's way as there is virtually no serious threat in his quarter except for possibly Tomas Berdych.
This is my take on who Federer can expect to play at Wimbledon this year should he make the semifinals as expected:
1st round: Federer vs Alejandro Falla (this is certain)
2nd round: Federer vs Ilija Bozoljac
3rd round: Federer vs Janko Tipsarevic (Tommy Robredo is the seed but he's aging and sliding)
4th round: Federer vs Feliciano Lopez (Melzer is the higher seed but I think Lopez goes through; Jesse Levine would be my second pick but it's Lopez vs Levine 1st round)
Quarters: Federer vs Tomas Berdych (Davydenko is the seed but he's a terrible grass courter)
The talent in Federer's quarter has to be judged as incredibly thin.
Tipsarevic has experienced success at Wimbledon as he has two 4th round appearances but he is a major underachiever on tour (no titles, no Slam QF appearances). Robredo has never won a third round match at Wimbledon and with his ranking sliding he's no threat to do that this year.
Feliciano Lopez has made the quarters of Wimbledon before but he's a first rounder from last year and he is another Slam underachiever. As a 4th rounder he's nothing more than a moderate threat.
Melzer would be the 4th round match if the seeds held and he is on form having made the French Open semis but he has 'one slam wonder' written all over him. He's never won a third round match at Wimbledon in 8 previous tournaments.
On the bottom half of Federer's quarter is Davydenko who has gone out in the first round of 5 Wimbledons. In the other three Wimbledons he has only made the 4th round once. If you were to hand pick a top 8 player in terms of seeding to have in your quarter - it would be Davydenko as grass is by far his worst surface and he'll be in tough just to make the 4th round.
Wawrinka is the 20th seed and he's in Federer's quarter but if the 20 seed makes the quarters it would be precedent setting in his career as he is 0-5 in Grand Slam 4th round matches.
Tomas Berdych (+5000 SkyBet) appears to be the only credible threat to Federer making the semis this year and I think that if a Federer vs Berdych quarterfinal were to take place that it would be a coin toss. Berdych is +600 with bet365 to win his quarter and based on both his semifinal appearance at the French Open and the fact that he defeated Federer last time they played - there is value there.
Federer's quarter can be found here.
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