Federer is a genuine threat to win at the All England Club, this goes without say - but he is overrated nonetheless.
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Wimbledon 2010 is just around the corner and odds are available with most sportsbooks that offer regular tennis lines. Rafael Nadal is the reigning French Open champion after defeating Robin Soderling in straight sets in the final match and he, Nadal, has regained top spot on tour while Soderling is up to number 6.
This year Wimbledon 2010 will take place between June 21st and July 4th as Roger Federer will attempt to defend the title he won last year in an epic final with Andy Roddick.
Federer is priced at +150 (3/2) with Coral in the outright winner's market for the grass court Slam and coming on the heels of his quarterfinals loss to Soderling at Roland Garros, you have to wonder if the All England Club will see a changing of the guard this year. Was it just a loss or did Federer finally lose an edge?
Perhaps looking at the broader context will help clarify.
Federer has won 6 of the last 7 titles at Wimbledon but his play has nose-dived since winning the 2010 Australian Open. Federer has lost to all of the following players on tour since February: Marcos Baghdatis, Tomas Berdych, Ernests Gulbis, Albert Montanes, Rafael Nadal, and Robin Soderling.
Federer has not taken a title down since Melbourne and before that he did not take a title down since Cincinnati. With the exception of Nadal, all of the players listed above had never beaten Federer on tour prior to 2010 and that is a sharp indicator that the Swiss Maestro is starting to fade.
A fact that should not be lost on Federer backers is that he is almost 29 and he should be expected to start faltering more and more soon. In the top 10 of the ATP there is only one player that is older than Fed and that is the fitness guru Nikolay Davydenko. Federer's declining results should not simply be attributed to the fact that he has a family now - aging is also playing a role.
If Federer were to challenge the next 12 Grand Slams then he could fully be expected to win 1 or 2 of them. He's the type of player that will win right when everyone is saying he is washed up. But coming off of 6 consecutive losing tournaments backing Federer to win Wimbledon at +150 (3/2) has to be considered a sucker bet. He's a bankroll drainer and when he does cash in it doesn't pay for the losses.
If Nadal is close to 100% then he could be expected to win the grass court Slam and his odds of +300 with Victor Chandler have way more value than Federer's skimpy odds. However Nadal's ambition to win Wimbledon may not be as high as some think. The missing piece in the career Slam in the US Open and perhaps that's where his focus will be.
Andy Roddick is also priced to be picked at +1200 (12/1; Boylesports) to win Wimbledon as he had fantastic form during the American hard court swing. His lackluster play on clay has never indicated how he would do on grass so his poor performance at the French Open is nothing to be alarmed about. His desire to win Wimbledon cannot seriously be doubted as his career will not be judged to be complete unless he does win that title.
Tomas Berdych is at +5000 (50/1) with Blue Square as he promises to threaten the top 10 on tour for the first time.
All 3 of these players are providing better value than Federer to win in Wimbledon and those backing the Swiss Maestro to win at the All England Club in 2010 might be guilty of betting on a ghost. Federer 2010 is not Federer 2003 to 2009 so if you are backing the world number 1 try to hold out for longer odds than what are currently being offered.
If you are backing Federer at this point Coral and Boylesports have the best odds that our staff found at +150 (3/2; MAXIMUMBONUS is your promotion code when registering). However without odds of at least +400 (4/1) there's no way Federer can be judged to be a good bet and we all know those odds aren't going to become available.
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