The value appears to be on Falla.
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Roger Federer will open his quest for a 7th Wimbledon title on Monday June 21st in his opening round match against Alejandro Falla. Federer is perfect against Falla in terms of both sets played and matches won and the match certainly appears to be a free pass for Federer.
Three sportsbooks have priced him at 1 to 500 (-50000; SkyBet, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler) to win the match and those odds are not even close to recommendable.
Falla has come in priced at +4000 (40/1) and there may be a little bit to think about there. Federer has been losing to all sorts of players in the last year and that might mean that Falla is more capable in the match than what +4000 implies.
Betting Falla wouldn't take much nerve just because at 40 to 1, you don't have to bet barely anything to make things interesting. However the best betting angle on this match may be with SkyBet.
Take Falla to win a set at +450 (9/2) as it is much more realistic than betting him to win and he did force a tiebreaker against Federer in their French Open 2nd round match so maybe there will be another close set.
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