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The 134th Preakness Stakes is almost upon us.
Race-day: 5/16/2009
Race-time: 6:15 pm est.
The second jewel of the Triple Crown is almost upon us and BetUS online racebook fans need to make their wagers now on the horse that they feel has the best chance of winning the race.
In handicapping the 2009 Preakness Stakes, I had to set a few rules. The first rule was to decide to look at the Kentucky Derby for what it was, an incredibly difficult race run over a muddy track with an inside speed bias. The second rule was to look at the Kentucky Oaks for what it was, a race with a proven winner in Rachel Alexandra against a bunch of horses that wouldn’t garner attention in an allowance race at Santa Anita.
The final rule was to decide to forget about the intangible issues such as whether or not Rachel Alexandra, as a filly, should be running against the boys or whether or not the owners of Mine That Bird and Pioneerof The Nile, because they may have conspired to prevent Rachel Alexandra from entering, are really scared of her.
By setting these rules, I can concentrate on picking the winner of the Preakness based on old school handicapping processes. After all, when it’s all said and done, the Preakness is a horse race and just like any other horse race on any other track in the United States.
Let’s get to my top four picks for the 2009 Preakness Stakes.
Top Choice: Friesan Fire
Morning Line: 6/1
Analysis: If any horse entered in the Preakness Stakes has an excuse for running badly in the Kentucky Derby, it’s Friesan Fire. What could gamblers possibly expect form a horse coming off of a 7 week layoff? Things started out badly for Friesan Fire in the Kentucky Derby and they ended badly. But there’s a reason that this guy went off the favorite in the Derby. He’s good. Some might say, he’s incredibly good. His Louisiana Derby still rates as one of the most impressive victories of the year from a three year old. He’s still a son of A.P. Indy which means he’s bred to be a champion and jockey Gabriel Saez and trainer Larry Jones are still two of the best in the business. His ability to lay only a length or two off of the speed in this is going to do wonders for him. If he lets Rachel Alexandra and Big Drama go at it for the lead, he should be right behind those two. At that point, it will be a rush to the finish line against Pioneerof The Nile. His last work, 5 furlongs in 58 and change was breathtaking. In Preakness Stakes history many Kentucky Derby favorites who failed have bounced back to win. The list includes Snow Chief and Hansel. I believe that at the end of the Preakness this Saturday, Friesan Fire will be added to the list.
Second Choice: Pioneerof The Nile
Morning Line: 5/1
Analysis: Without a doubt the most impressive horse in the Kentucky Derby, outside of the winner, was Pioneerof The Nile. His trip in the Derby was pretty amazing. By the second call in the Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof The Nile was a ½ length behind the front-runners and about two to three horses wide which on that day was the worst part of the track. Garret Gomez made a move with Pioneerof The Nile in the lane, but the son of Empire Maker couldn’t accelerate after such a grueling pace duel for more than a mile. Instead of throwing in the towel, Pioneerof The Nile kept fighting. When Musket Man and Papa Clem came to his throat latch, Pioneerof The Nile, the horse that had been a part of the pace from the outset, is the one that kept going on. He never threw in the towel which speaks volumes about his class and determination. So, why isn’t he my top choice in this race? Because he ran so hard in the Kentucky Derby that I believe he might actually bounce physically from the race. He’s coming back two weeks after the most grueling race of his life. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Pioneerof the Nile were to win the Preakness Stakes, but I can’t put him on top because I just don’t believe he will physically be at his best. Then again, his second best on a track that has no biases and on a sunny day in Baltimore, might be good enough.
Third Choice: Mine That Bird
Morning Line: 6/1
Analysis: There are two ways to look at Mine That Bird’s victory in the Kentucky Derby. The first is to say that he was running on the best part of the Kentucky Derby track, that’s true, he was. He got a perfect ride from a Churchill Downs jockey specialist, and apparently loves the mud. The second way to look at Mine That Bird’s Kentucky Derby victory is to say that he took a huge leap in the Derby and should continue to be a good horse from now until when he retires. I remember what a fan at the 1999 Kentucky Derby said to D. Wayne Lukas after Lukas’s long shot, Charismatic, had won the race. “That’s the last race that horse will ever win,” the fan said. Charismatic came back to win the Preakness two weeks later and would have won the Belmont Stakes three weeks after the Preakness if not for a premature move by ill-fated jockey Chris Antley. Well, Mine That Bird might just be that kind of horse. Three year olds develop differently. Who’s to say that Mine That Bird didn’t develop, didn’t make that leap forward, in the Kentucky Derby? Nobody.
First, he’s out of Birdstone who won the Belmont Stakes. On his mother’s side is Smart Strike, the sire of 2007 Preakness winner, Curlin. Mine That Bird won four races as a 2 year old out 6 starts. As a three year old, he is 1 and 1 out of 3 races. This is a quality animal. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenille, Mine That Bird was throttled but that was before trainer Chip Woodley got a hold of him. He lost by a neck in the $100,000 Borderland Derby while dueling on the lead. He came back in the $800,000 Sunland Derby and lost by ¾ lengths while attending a very fast pace. Then, in the Kentucky Derby, he laid back and made that incredible move up the rail. The point is that Mine That Bird might just be a good horse. If that’s the case, then he has a shot to win the Preakness Stakes at very nice odds.
Fourth Choice: Musket Man
Morning Line: 8/1
Analysis: Out of 7 lifetime races, Musket Man has five victories and 2 third place finishes. He has never finished off the board in his career. Even in the Kentucky Derby, a race that didn’t set up for him at all, Musket Man made his usual move and picked up third place. There’s just no other way to say it. This cheap little horse out of Yonaguska has more heart than any animal I’ve seen on a racetrack in years. He won’t ever quit and he always responds with his best. I don’t believe his best is going to be good enough to win the Preakness, but I won’t talk any horseplayers off of him if they like him either. Musket Man gets a better pace set-up, a better distance to try, and no other horse in the race is going to run as hard he does. Cinderella has been known to show up in these races once in a while, just ask the 19 horses that lost to Mine That Bird two weeks ago. Why not again in the Preakness?
*** Rachel Alexandra, the superstar filly that has been designated as the 8/5 morning line favorite to win the Preakness Stakes, might be good enough to beat the boys, but there are some serious issues surrounding her victory in the Kentucky Oaks. First, she was running against arguably one of the worst fields assembled for the Oaks in the race’s history. The only horse that could have possibly challenged her, Justwhistledixie, scratched before the race. Second, she was running over a muddy track much like Mine That Bird did in the Kentucky Derby. Third, she got to lay behind cheap speed before taking over at the top of the stretch. While Mine That Bird had to bide his time and then wait for an opening in the Derby. Fourth, the Kentucky Oaks was at 1 1/8th miles. The Preakness Stakes is at 1 3/16th miles which is slightly longer. Fifth, the Kentucky Oaks was her fifth fantastic race in a row. She’s due for a bounce. Sixth, no filly has won the Preakness Stakes since 1924. Seventh, the pace of the Preakness, with Big Drama entered, is going to be much faster than the Kentucky Oaks.
Finally, what’s the real reason why Rachel Alexandra is a bad bet in the Preakness Stakes? The odds, of course! 8 to 5 on a horse that barely ran faster than a 6 to 1 shot, Mine That Bird, in a race that totally set up for her at a distance to her liking? I don’t think so. She has yet to face adversity. Front-running talent like Big Drama, Pioneerof The Nile, Friesan Fire and possibly Papa Clem are going to make sure she knows what adversity really is.
All odds BetUS.
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