Roger Federer, last year’s runnerup for the US Open singles title, is currently the second favorite to win a sixth US Open title this year. The betting market may undergo major revisions however – depending on how many sportsbooks open lines on Juan Martin Del Potro and the status of his intentions.
Del Potro, the defending champion for the US Open, has been mentioned as expected to play at the US Open this year despite earlier claims that he would not be back on tour until ATP Thailand. Currently only bet365, SportingBet, BetFred, and Coral have betting lines open on Del Potro while most sportsbooks are steering clear from him at this time.
If you were planing on backing Djokovic, Soderling, Roddick, or Berdych then SportingBet is the site to register with as their inclusion of Del Potro in the field has lead to a lengthening of the odds on each of those players. Roddick is by far the worst bet in that quarter of players as his recent form has not been noteworthy.
Djokovic at +1600 is a really good price on the world number 2 as most sites have him at half those odds. Soderling’s price is not bad but it is not as valuable as Djokovic’s while both Roddick and Berdych should be considered overrated at the odds provided.
Nadal’s odds have generally been shortening as he was priced at +300 earlier this week and now the best odds for him are +275. Those odds do have some value still but if they keep shortening they will be tougher and tougher to tip as worthy.
Roger Federer, a sucker bet, is the player most overrated in the above 8 favorites as 3 to 1 is way too short on him. In order to feel confident in a bet on the Swiss Maestro for a Slam at this point you would probably want about +1200 (12/1) and that’s not going to become available although Fed may drift out to +600 or so if (when?) he loses in Toronto and Cincinnati.
Del Potro, of course, is cloudy as he is coming back from injury. If he was 100% he would be so incredibly valuable at +2500 (25/1) but what his form will be like at the US Open is very unclear. bet365 have him priced at +1400 while BetFred have him way too short at +600. All things considered +2500 has to be considered valuable but only for a small bet as their is extra risk due to his questionable status.
My recommendation at this point is to take the +1600 price on Novak Djokovic and the +2500 price on Juan Martin Del Potro. Both lines have to be considered valuable.
Those looking to back Nadal can’t be incredibly enthusiastic about +275 although the odds may have slight value. It may be smarter to hope that Rafa drifts out a little further over the hard court season and then take him if +325 or something becomes available.
He has never won the US Open before – in fact he’s never made the final. There’s nothing wrong with demanding a longer price on him especially given that he does not hold an active hard court title at any level.
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