Novak Djokovic vs. Tomas Berdych takes place tonight at the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals in London.
The match is scheduled to start at 20:00 GMT.
Preview:
Still reeling from his defeat to Roger Federer on Tuesday, Djokovic must recover his equilibrium to face Berdych tonight if he is to qualify for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals.
Given the impressive complement of winning streaks Djokovic came into that match holding – 23 match wins since losing to Federer at the Cincinnati Masters, 15 consecutive wins at the World Tour Finals and 38 indoor wins, a streak dating back to the 2012 Paris Masters – nobody really expected him to lose, but it was Federer who went 2-0 in matches and 4-0 in sets at the O2, backing up his 6-4, 6-2 victory over Berdych with a 7-5, 6-2 win over Djokovic.
After Tuesday’s results, which included a three-set win for Kei Nishikori over Berdych, Federer has taken one of the semifinal spots and all the other three players in Group Stan Smith are in with a chance of taking the other one.
A win for Djokovic will see him progress unless Nishikori has beaten Federer. If Nishikori beats Federer, Berdych is eliminated; if Federer beats Nishikori in two or three sets (much the likelier outcome) then Berdych can reach the semifinals by beating Djokovic in straight sets.
How plausible is such a win for Berdych? Anything is possible, as we saw by Federer’s win over Djokovic on Tuesday, but although Djokovic’s dominance makes it easy to regard any defeat for the world no. 1 as a huge shock, the fact remains that Federer’s head-to-head with Djokovic going into that match was 21-21 and the Swiss player had beaten him twice in 2015 already (the only player, of the four that have beaten Djokovic in 2015, to do so more than once). Also, the stakes weren’t that high; Djokovic may have been frustrated by his bad day, but in terms of his progress through the tournament, he could afford to give himself, on some level, one poor match.
It’s a boon for both competitors that their match is second on the schedule, when at least they will both know what they have to do to qualify for the semifinals (or that qualification is impossible). If Nishikori has beaten Federer, Berdych can keep Djokovic out of the semifinals with a win over the Serb; if Federer beats Nishikori, Berdych will need to win in straight sets (so Djokovic can guarantee his spot by winning one set).
Wins over Djokovic have been few and far between for Berdych during their careers; in fact, Berdych has won just two out of 22, the first coming in the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2010, the second in the quarterfinals of Rome in 2013. All three of their World Tour Finals meetings so far have been won by Djokovic in straight sets, as was their most recent encounter, Djokovic winning 7-6(3), 7-6(8) at the Paris Masters two weeks ago (a strong performance from Berdych who did very little wrong during the match).
Doing little wrong but still losing is often the story with Berdych, as it was when he was edged in a close three-set match by Nishikori on Tuesday 7-5, 3-6, 6-3. When push comes to shove, as good as he can be, Berdych doesn’t quite have the hands, versatility or movement to beat the very best unless he can find and sustain some rare inspiration. Djokovic’s loss to Federer may just have been a ‘blip’, an outlier, a bad day disconnected to any deeper or more enduring problem for the world no. 1, and we should expect the Serb to prove that it was just that when he takes on Berdych.
