Historical accomplishments can’t be bet on and there’s no reason to take Federer at short odds in the futures market.
Roger Federer has not been a force on tour since he beat Andy Murray in the 2010 Australian Open final almost 6 months ago. Quarterfinal appearances at both the 2010 French Open and Wimbledon 2010 were both unimpressive as Federer never defeated anyone of note in those tournaments and much more was expected of the Swiss Maestro, if not according to the opinion of experts but according to betting odds.
Federer has had an unequalled run in Grand Slam events but it is a run that has to end sometime and it may be over.
Federer backers have been advised to lay off of Federer for about a year now as he has only won two tournaments despite being the first or second favorite in every one that he has challenged. If you are backing Federer for Slams still then you would be smart to keep your betting to your minimum and to use his longest odds available, odds that are included below:
2010 US Open: +300 (3/1; Coral)
2011 Australian Open: +250 (5/2; Victor Chandler)
2011 French Open: +600 (6/1; Stan James)
2011 Wimbledon: +350 (7/2; BetFred)
However just because odds are posted here does not always mean that they are worth risking and to be clear NONE of the above odds have any kind of clear value. If anything, Federer’s odds can be expected to drift before any of the above events start especially if he continues to lose matches to the likes of Albert Montanes and Ernests Gulbis.
Federer backers are therefore advised to wait for longer odds as his current odds can all be judged to be way too short.
But make no mistake – Federer is not slumping.
A slump is a temporary lapse that athletes can be expected to recover from and with Federer there should be no such expectation. He’s aging and in tennis when you lose just 1% of your athleticism it makes a big difference as it truly is a game of inches. Points and rallies that were going Federer’s way in the past are now going his opponents’ way and it’s making it harder and harder for Federer to win against top 10 players.
Unlike some Federer layers, I am NOT writing the Swiss Maestro off because besides being an all-time great athlete, he is a master gamesmen and he might make effective adjustments. However Federer’s odds are NOT worth risking at this point in his career and these are my true odds for Federer for the 4 Slams in the next year:
2010 US Open: +1200
2011 Australian Open: +1400
2011 French Open: +1800
2011 Wimbledon: +800
For the US Open consider one of these three players instead of Federer: Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, and Novak Djokovic. Robin Soderling could also be in the mix but the Swede just has trouble winning late round matches as shown time and time and time again and most recently at the ATP Bastad final.
Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic are worthy of consideration for the 2011 Australian Open as well and if Juan Martin Del Potro is 100% by Melbourne, he’s a force to be reckoned with as well.
Backing Federer has been a bankroll drain for the last year as he has only come through in two markets: Cincinnati 2009 and the 2010 Australian Open. While those weren’t terrible paydays for tennis punters if you have been betting Fed consistently then the winning bets from the two mentioned tournaments would not have paid for all the losing bets.
Maybe he can come through again in a Slam, time will tell, but from a betting perspective he’s a bankroll drainer.
