Roger Federer Should Be Considered 6th Favorite For The 2010 Us Open

There are a handful of favorites that Federer should be priced longer than for the Flushing Meadows title.

The 2010 US Open from Flushing Meadows, New York is less than 4 weeks away.  Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will surely be the centers of attention as Nadal can complete a career Slam with a title while Federer can prove his doubters wrong by winning it all once again.

Nadal is priced at +275 (11/4; Paddy Power) and the odds have slight value as his form has been scary in recent months.  Federer is priced at +300 (3/1; BoyleSports) as the second favorite and the argument could be made that he should be priced much, much longer.

Federer has just two active titles, one of which will disputed before the start of Flushing Meadows (Cincinnati) and the other one is from the 2010 Australian Open, the other hard court Slam – a fact that may be giving Federer backers a bit of confidence.

Nadal is already considered a heavier favorite than Federer but 4 other key players aren’t and 3 of them probably should be: Novak Djokovic, Robin Soderling, and Tomas Berdych.  Andy Murray is basically on par with Federer at this point.

Maybe you could throw Juan Martin Del Potro into that list but who knows what the defending champion will be playing like coming back from injury (if he plays at all).  Various oddsmakers usually do not vary all that widely from eachother when they price players but with Del Potro there is huge variance from +600 with BetFred to +2800 with SportingBet, both in the outright winner’s market.

+2800 is a steal on JMD, all risks considered.

Here’s what the favorites look like right now for the 7 serious contenders (the percentage is the implied probability based on the odds):

1.  Rafael Nadal +275, 26.7% chance of winning (Paddy Power)
2.  Roger Federer +300, 25% (BoyleSports)
3.  Andy Murray +550, 15.4% (Bodog)
4.  Novak Djokovic +1600, 5.88% (SportingBet)
5.  Robin Soderling +1600, 5.88% (SportingBet)
6.  Tomas Berdych +2000, 4.76% (SportingBet)
7.  Juan Martin Del Potro, +2800, 3.45% (SportingBet)

Andy Roddick is generally considered the 7th favorite with most sportsbooks but you might drop him down the list based on Wimbledon and ATP Atlanta as he did not lose to Slam contenders in those tournaments.  Sam Querrey is a better bet at +8000 (80/1) with Boylesports than Roddick is at +2000 with SportingBet.

Here’s what my true odds and true favorites are (I’ll abstain from commenting on Del Potro further):

1.  Rafael Nadal +212, 32%
2.  Novak Djokovic +800, 11.1%
4.  Robin Soderling +1200, 7.7%
4.  Tomas Berdych +1200, 7.7%
6.  Roger Federer +2000, 4.8%
6.  Andy Murray +2000, 4.8%

Sam Querrey has made a small case for himself to be considered a US Open threat with the ATP Los Angeles title and an argument could be made that he is poised to breakout.  He has hardly any points to defend from ATP Washington, the Canadian Masters, or the Cincinnati Masters and there is no reason why he shouldn’t be in the top 12 by the end of the US Open.

His true odds could be put at +3000 (30/1; 3.23%) which is about where I put Roddick as well.

Nadal, Djokovic, Soderling, and Berdych are all major threats to Federer at the US Open.  If any of those players drew Federer, the Swiss Maestro should be the underdog.

I would put Nadal at -600 to win straight up against Fed, Djokovic at -350, and Soderling and Berdych both as -225 favorites vs Federer.

Murray is a tough read at this point with the coaching changes, the title drought, and the choke in the Aussie final to Fed but even he, Murray, could be in a coin toss against Federer should they meet.

From the quarterfinals on, Federer could be fighting as an underdog and +300 are the worst odds in the US Open’s outright winner’s market.  To really have a good shot at the title, Federer would need upsets or withdrawals to thin the talent out as there’s no real way he can be called a likely survivor of this kind of draw:

Round of 16: Sam Querrey
QF: Robin Soderling
SF: Novak Djokovic
Finals: Rafael Nadal

While that draw is hypothetical it is also realistic based on current rankings.  The way Federer’s ‘random’ draws go in Slams he’ll probably have a draw like this however:

3rd round: Radek Stepanek
4th round: Mikhail Youzhny
QF: Andy Roddick

But even with a draw like that, he’ll be an underdog in this last two matches.

Australian Open aside, Federer 2010 is not Federer 2004-2008 and no one is going to be scared of the Swiss Maestro anymore.  Fed will be ranked 4th or 5th after the post-US Open rankings come out and he’ll keep descending from there.

Recommendations: pound Nadal at +275 (Paddy Power), sprinkle Djokovic at +1600 (SportingBet), and sprinkle Del Potro at +2800 (SportingBet).