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Roger Federer Vs Albert Montanes Atp Estoril Semifinal Preview

Federer is favored to reach the final as he is 3-0 against Montanes of Spain.

Roger Federer and Albert Montanes are set to meet in the semifinals of the ATP Estoril clay court event and Federer is coming in as a big favorite.  The best price that you can get on Fed at the moment is -700 (1/7) but there’s no reason to be feeling good about such short odds as Montanes is not a bad clay courter and can threaten Federer in this match.  To make anything with -700 you have to ship almost your entire bankroll and that’s far too risky on Federer at this point.

Montanes’s best price is with Ladbrokes and that is at +650, a betting line which offers far better betting options.

Federer is 3-0 against Montanes and two of those results were on clay but at least the Spanish player has some recent results that might suggest he can hang around in a match with Federer.  For example Montanes beat Marin Cilic and Marcos Baghdatis in making the Monte Carlo Masters quarters and he even managed to take a set off of Fernando Verdasco, who is having an outstanding clay court season, in that quarterfinal match.

The true odds on this match are more like this: Federer (-450) vs Montanes (+450).  The betting price of +650 with Ladbrokes has to be judged as valuable.

Those that are only looking to back Federer should look at taking him to win precisely 2-1.  Federer played a close set in the quarters against Arnaud Clement as it went to a tiebreaker before Federer won.  Montanes is better than Clement at this point in their careers and you have to think that he, Montanes, would take better advantage of any Federer mistakes.

Ladbrokes are offering +400 (4/1) on Federer to win precisely 2-1.

If you wanted to be conservative in this match then you could bet BOTH betting lines.  Take Montanes to win straight up and take Federer to win 2-1.  The odds permit both bets as a winning bet will easily pay for the losing bet (plus profits) and the only way you lose money is if Federer wins in precisely straight sets.

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Ian goes back to the very early days of CrunchSports, having been tirelessly covering soccer for us for over 10 years.

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