Federer probably won’t walk all over Falla, who had a good opening match, but the world number 1 should be advancing to the third round nonetheless.
What time does Roger Federer play at Roland Garros 2010?
Roger Federer will continue with his attempt to defend his singles title from last season as he will be back in action on May 26th from the 2010 French Open. His apparent victim in round 2 – 70th ranked Alejandro Falla of Columbia.
Federer, depending on which sportsbook you consult, opened anywhere from a -20000 (1/200; bet365) favorite to a -4100 (1/41; Coral) favorite while Falla’s best price is currently +2500 (25/1; Boylesports) straight up. Falla might beat Federer once in every 30 matches they play so the true odds on this match are likely about -3000 (1/30) for Federer and +3000 (30/1) on Falla and what that means is that you’ll need to look at other markets to find value.
Federer is 2-0 against Falla and both previous matches were 2nd round Grand Slam matches at Roland Garros 2006 and Wimbledon 2004. Besides being undefeated against Falla straight up, Federer is 6-0 in sets played and 36-11 in games played.
Falla did look good in the first round however as he defeated Tipsarevic 18-6 in games played. That kind of thrashing against a tour veteran still in his prime is impressive and Falla may be able to play Federer to two close sets before losing in 3 or 4.
Federer will win his match against Falla but his best price of -4100 (1/41) can’t win you anything unless you already have a big enough bankroll to retire with anyways. The best angle on this match is to bet Federer to win precisely 3 sets to 1 and Blue Square have that event priced at +600 (6/1). Federer did lose precisely 1 set in his second and third round matches at the 2009 French Open against Jose Acasuso and Paul-Henri Mathieu so betting him to lose one set and only one set against Falla seems realistic.
