Williams has not been in the news much since injuring her foot and she is currently idle on tour. The reason her odds have been drifted is likely due to a re-emergence of Victoria Azarenka who took down the Stanford title over the weekend.
Perhaps there is value at +275 with S. Williams at this point but the thing about favorites is that they do not shorten that much or that quickly. If you wanted to back Serena at something close to +275 then you could likely get that price later. The fact that her price is currently heading in the longer direction implies that Serena backers may want to wait for something better.
Maria Sharapova’s odds are also currently lengthening and for good reason. She’s a double fault machine at the moment and maybe she could be taken with confidence had she won outright in Stanford but you can’t feel great about Sharapova now. +1500 is what you should be hoping for on her but she’s unlikely to drift that long in this market due to her popularity.
Venus Williams is very over-rated in this market. It has been 9 years since she last won the US Open and now she’s 30 years old. There’s not much hope for Venus to keep on beating competition that’s getting relatively younger and younger and the 19 to 24 year olds are going to start ‘upsetting’ V. Williams on a more regular basis. Worth ethic doesn’t matter when it comes to age related decline because the younger players work hard too and they just have better wind and legs.
Williams doesn’t have a huge chunk of ranking points from Wimbledon keeping her afloat anymore and so she is going to start descending soon. Aside from finding the fountain of youth, there isn’t a lot she can do about it and she should be avoided in all futures markets.
Dementieva is going to be a Grand Slam goose-egger and we know enough about this player to know she can’t be picked at +2200. Near misses at Wimbledon 2009 and the 2010 French Open were probably her last real shots at Grand Slam glory. Dementieva might be a good bet at +4000 but at +2200, as a best price, she has to be avoided.
Samantha Stosur is not going to win the US Open and she is the most overrated player in the field – more overrated than Venus Williams. Stosur is a complete no-show in Slams with the exception of the French Open. She has only won 25% of her individual matches at Flushing Meadows and she doesn’t even win her fair shake of the lesser tournaments as she only has TWO career tour titles. Stosur could be put out at +15000 in terms of true odds but there is no way +2500 is any good.
Azarenka, Wozniacki, and Jankovic are the value picks right now.
Azarenka is fresh off of her Stanford title and William Hill have left her priced too long at +1600 – odds that promise to shorten. Wozniacki, ranked 3rd in the world, made the US Open finals last year and she has improved since then and +2000 is good to go on the 20 year old. Jankovic is a little bit cloudy with injury problems but she’s been to the US Open final before (2008), she’s ranked 2nd in the world, and at +3300 she is a bargain.