Kim Clijsters Odds Shortening For 2010 Us Open

The foot injury to Serena Williams may be leading to Kim Clijsters odds shortening.

The 2010 US Open is still over a month away however betting lines are open in the women’s futures market already.  Serena Williams is the clear favorite as the top ranked player in the world, a former US Open winner, and a holder of two current Grand Slam titles.

Kim Clijsters is the second favorite as the defending champion and a player who has won at Flushing Meadows in her last two visits to the tournament.

Here are the futures market odds for the top 8 favorites:

1.  Serena Williams +200 (2/1) Coral
2.  Kim Clijsters +490 (49/10) Bwin
3.  Maria Sharapova +800 (8/1) Bodog
4.  Venus Williams +1200 (12/1) Ladbrokes

5.  Caroline Wozniacki +1700 (17/1) Bwin
6.  Samantha Stosur +2000 (20/1) Paddy Power
7.  Elena Dementieva +2200 (22/1) Victor Chandler
8.  Victoria Azarenka +2200 (22/1) Victor Chandler

The players that are overrated in this market are Venus Williams, Victoria Azarenka, Samantha Stosur, and Elena Dementieva.

Venus Williams is 30 and her best tennis is behind her.  Her best Slam has always been Wimbledon so her quarterfinal exit in that tournament this year should shatter the confidence of her punters.  She hasn’t won the US Open since 2001 and she’s very unlikely to win it again so you might put her way out at about +2500 in terms of true odds and that makes +1200 a total sucker bet.

Azarenka had a good showing at the other hard court Slam, the Australian Open, and she showed some life just prior to Wimbledon.  But it’s possible that her loss to Serena Williams in the Aussie quarters was disturbing as she, Azarenka, appeared to have the match at hand up a set and two breaks before losing. She has descended down the rankings significantly since the end of the Aussie and it’s tough to tip +2200 on Azarenka as valuable.

She’s only made the 4th round once at Flushing Meadows and her results from 2010 have dipped compared to her 2009 results.  Odds of about +4000 would be good on Azarenka and maybe they will become available in the weeks leading up to the US Open as her odds have drifted in the last few days already.

Regarding Samantha Stosur there is NO reason to believe that she is anything except for a clay courter when it comes to Slams.  Her best singles result outside of the French Open is a couple of 4th round Australian Open appearances but at the US Open she has NEVER made the 3rd round.  In fact for singles at the US Open she is just 2-6 in her career and there is no way her odds of +2000 can be tipped as valuable.

She’s the most overrated player expected to be in the field this year and her true odds might be way out at +15000 (150/1) as she could crash out in the first or second round just like she did at Wimbledon 2010.

Dementieva at +2200 probably isn’t all that overrated but she should still be priced a little longer.  With Serena Williams missing Cincy and Montreal, Dementieva might get a hard court title before the US Open if she’s 100%, but there are better bets out there.

Maria Sharapova’s odds and Kim Clijster’s odds are about right – neither too long nor too short – however there is no crystal clear value with them.  You would probably want +1000 on Sharapova to feel like you were making a good pick while +750 would look great on Clijsters.

However with the foot injury to Serena Williams, this market is somewhat cloudy and odds on Clijsters and Sharapova may be shortening soon.  In fact Clijsters was out at +530 just a few days ago so perhaps her backers should be acting NOW to make sure they get something reasonable.

So where S. Williams’ left foot finished off last year, her right foot is picking up.

There are recent reports out that Williams’ participation in the US Open may be at risk due to the cut she suffered recently.  While you can expect her to play at the US Open be sure to consult your sportsbooks policy on players that no-show before you back Williams.

Some sportsbooks will refund a bet in tennis on a player that does not play a single point in a draw.  Other sportsbooks consider everything to be action when it comes to futures bets.

No doubt Williams is a bit of a question mark and that could have an effect on betting trends.  Her odds should be expected to drift before the start of the US Open and perhaps you could get her at +325 in a month or so.  +200 is therefore a bad price on the world number 1 as you can hope for longer odds later.

Wozniacki made the finals last year in what was actually a very easy and lucky draw.  She had Svetlana Kuznetsova in the 4th round, a player who has slumped since winning the 2009 French Open, Melanie Oudin in the quarters, and Yanina Wickmayer in the semis.  Even so the Dane star only lost one set before the final, a match she could have won over Kim Clijsters.

Wozniacki, on the whole, has actually improved on her Slam results in 2010 when compared to 2009 as she advanced further in both the Aussie and the French while maintaining her Wimbledon result.  Consider the 20 year old, who is likely a future world number 1 and has already been a number 2, to be the 4th favorite at the US Open – ahead of Venus Williams.  +1700 is acceptable value on Wozniacki and hopefully she improves on her US Open result from last year as well.

For players outside of the top 8 that may be underrated consider the following players:

Na Li +6600 Blue Square
Yanina Wickmayer +7400 Bwin

Li has had a great year that has seen her ascend to the top 10 mainly on the strength of her run to the Australian Open semis.  Wickmayer has been a little disappointing so far this year but +7400 on a US Open semifinalist from last year is a good price.  Both of these players might be more accurately priced at about +4500.

Bettor’s beware: Melanie Oudin.  What’s she done since last year’s run?