The argument against betting Nadal in the futures market.
Rafael Nadal has opened at +400 (4/1; bet365) to win the title in the outright winner’s market for the 2010 Miami Masters (+500 with SkyBet). That does make Nadal the second favorite behind Roger Federer for the event but the value on his odds is still highly questionable.
Nadal is ranked 4th on tour, again, as he dropped one spot after failing to protect tons of tour ranking points in Indian Wells last week. Nadal crashed in the semifinals despite having a path to the title that had to be considered to be reasonably clear.
There was nothing all that unusual about Nadal faltering in the semifinals however as when you look at the last YEAR of events that Nadal has contested there’s a pretty regular pattern: if you are backing him on a regular basis in the futures market, then you are losing your money.
Nadal has not cashed in for his backers in a Grand Slam futures market in the past year and while he has won two ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in that time frame those results are almost a year old now. As far as active titles go they are limited to the following events all of which have drop-off dates that are fast approaching:
Rome 2009 (Masters Series 1000)
Monte Carlo 2009 (Masters Series 1000)
Barcelona (Series 500)
The list of events that he has not won is much much longer and whether you are looking at +400 with bet365 or +500 with SkyBet, you just cannot risk backing Nadal. He could win of course but his true odds feel as though they are more like +1200 (12/1), a price that just is not offered and one that cannot be expected based on how many fans Nadal has.
For those who have to bet Nadal you would be smarter to target specific matches for straight up victories in the early rounds or you should be making set betting calls, a service that bet365 offer consistently. At this time, keep your money in the futures market on Novak Djokovic (+800, 8/1; bet365) and Andy Murray (+550, 11/2; Coral) as those two players are much safer bets than Nadal.
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