Nadal can complete a career Grand Slam with a title in Flushing Meadows later this summer.
Roger Federer has a handful of US Open titles while Rafael Nadal has not even made the final of a US Open yet. Even so with Rafa being such a dominant player over the last few months and win Federer mounting up losses the two players are considered to be equally capable of winning the 2010 US Open, at least in terms of betting odds.
In terms of true odds you would probably put Nadal as the actual favorite as Roger Federer did not win last year and he has only played worse since the 2009 US Open with the exception of the late rounds of the Australian Open.
Here are the top 8 players at this point in the futures market to win the final Grand Slam of the calendar year, the 2010 US Open:
1. Rafael Nadal +300 (3/1; Victor Chandler)
2. Roger Federer +300 (3/1; Boylesports)
3. Andy Murray +505 (5/1; Bwin)
4. Novak Djokovic +1000 (10/1; BetFred)
5. Robin Soderling +1400 (14/1; Blue Square)
6. Tomas Berdych +1400 (14/1; Blue Square)
7. Andy Roddick +1800 (18/1; Blue Square)
8. Nikolay Davydenko +3300 (33/1; bet365)
The clearly overrated players in this market are Federer, Berdych, Roddick, and Davydenko as they should all be at longer odds than what they have been priced at.
With Federer, his odds are based on results from years gone by but he has clearly lost his edge since winning the 2010 Australian Open. Instead of being looked at as a key contender, Federer should be considered an outside threat and in order to make a confident value bet on him, you need odds of about +1200 (12/1), maybe longer. Federer’s price may drift out to +650 (13/2) or so during the hard court season so if you are backing Fed to win at Flushing Meadows, you are advised to wait as there may very well be a better price on the near horizon for the world number 3.
Berdych was looking good in the futures market prior to Wimbledon but that was when he was coming in at +6600 (66/1) or so in the outright winner’s market. Due to his finals appearance at the All England Club, his betting prices have shortened in the futures markets and with that his value has diminished. He’s an outside threat as well but +1400 (14/1) is too short on this player as his true odds might be more like +2500 (25/1).
Keep in mind that he doesn’t close out tournaments, even when he is playing well, as he has not won a title since Munich in May 2009.
Roddick’s results are really starting to taper off and it will be interesting to watch his form at ATP Atlanta. There’s definitely good tennis left for the American number 1 but you have to wonder how long he will stay in the top ten as his Slam chart doesn’t look strong from the last year.
Roddick fell in the fourth round of Wimbledon earlier this year and last year at the US Open he only made the third round. He is redeemed a little by his impressive hard court results from the American Masters series swing earlier this year but he’s nothing more than a player to keep a close eye on at this point. He is favored at +140 to win at ATP Atlanta against a field that looks moderately challenging at best and if he puts up a bunch of impressive wins to take down a title perhaps +1800 could be viewed as long instead of short but at this point there’s nothing to get excited about with Roddick.
Regarding Davydenko, we already know everything about this player and he does not cash in for his backers in futures markets for Slams. He has contested 36 Slams, he’s been a devastating player for years, and yet he has few prestigious titles to show for his efforts. Davydenko has never made a Grand Slam final and despite multiple semifinal appearances, he is an underachiever in Majors. He was the man of the moment in early 2010 as he was fresh off of a win at the World Tour Championships but then he faltered in the quarters of the Aussie, a tournament that may have been his last good chance at a Grand Slam title. Make him +5000 in terms of true odds for the US Open and avoid him in the betting market.
The winner of the 2010 US Open should come out of one of these 3 players: Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic. Those that are looking to back one of these three players are advised to get their bets in soon because they should threaten for titles in the US Open warm-up and then their odds might start shortening.
Soderling is a player that can beat anyone in a heads up match but, somewhat like Berdych, Soderling fails in late rounds – just like he did at ATP Bastad. However, +1400 (14/1) is not a bad price on him as only Nadal has stood in Soderling’s way in the last 2 Slams. The Swedish player has improved and he needs to continue to improve and his odds feel more like a ‘push’ at this point than anything else.
Djokovic has been a force at Flushing Meadows before and it was Federer that stood in his way in the past. If the Swiss Maestro continues to struggle during the hard court events that lead up to New York then Djokovic has to be taken very seriously as a title contender and +1000 may shorten over the next several weeks leading to Flushing Meadows.
Our recommendation at this point is to sprinkle Djokovic at this point while taking either Murray or Nadal with a bigger bet.
Ian goes back to the very early days of CrunchSports, having been tirelessly covering soccer for us for over 10 years.
