Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer takes place tonight in the final of the 2015 US Open.
This US Open final is scheduled to start at 21:00 BST.
Preview:
Roger Federer has returned to the US Open final for the first time since 2009 and could claim his first Grand Slam title for three years – he just has to beat world no. 1 Novak Djokovic first.
No man has ever won the US Open title without dropping a set, but that is precisely what Federer could accomplish if he should beat Djokovic in straights. After choosing to skip this year’s Canada Masters in favour of an extended rest break after Wimbledon, Federer enters the US Open final on an 11-match winning streak having won 28 sets in a row since losing to Djokovic in the Wimbledon final. He claimed the Cincinnati Masters final – defeating Djokovic 7-6(1), 6-3 in the final – and has stormed through the draw in New York despite some quality opposition, beating Leonardo Mayer, Steve Darcis, Philipp Kohlschreiber, John Isner, Richard Gasquet and Stan Wawrinka without losing a single set. Only twice has he even been taken to a tie break – both times by Isner.
Djokovic’s journey to his sixth US Open final hasn’t exactly been a thrill-ride either – he dropped sets to Roberto Bautista Agut and Feliciano Lopez, but won his semifinal against Marin Cilic by the most lopsided scoreline in a US Open men’s semifinal since 1951, winning 6-0, 6-1, 6-2 against the utterly hapless defending champion. He has dropped, in fact, the same number of sets as he had coming into the Wimbledon final.
The shadow of that Wimbledon final hangs heavy over any projection of the result of this US Open one. Many predicted a win for Federer after his smooth progress through the draw and scintillating semifinal demolition of Andy Murray, with Djokovic looking no more than solid on his way to the final – and then Djokovic raised his level, Federer’s dropped and the result was a fairly one-sided victory for Djokovic, who won 7-6(1), 6-7(10), 6-4, 6-3.
Will we see a similar dynamic at play in New York? Federer may have five US Open titles to Djokovic’s solitary one, but the last one came in 2008 and he has lost his last two Grand Slam finals, both to Djokovic. Since Federer won his last Grand Slam, Djokovic has won four and played in another five finals and has increasingly developed into a reliable performer in the closing stages, mastering the art of keeping his powder dry through the earlier rounds and peaking in the final.
Djokovic has had his shining moments in New York, not least capturing the title in 2011 – and saving match points against Federer in the semifinal, one with a magnificent return winner off Federer’s first serve which Federer called a ‘lucky shot’. But he has also had his moments with the crowd, who have never quite embraced him and shown that in a way he hasn’t appreciated. Moreover, Djokovic has shown signs of wear and tear, both physical and emotional, not so much at the US Open but certainly in the run-up to it – and he is definitely not a fan of Federer’s new returning tactic, the ‘SABR’, which Federer used against him to great effect in the first-set tie break in the Cincinnati final; he has largely declined to comment on it, although his coach Boris Becker called it ‘disrespectful’. That could fire Djokovic up in the final, or it could distract and frustrate him.
Federer called the match a ‘straight shootout’, meaning that neither player will have to notably adjust their game or tactics to the other. We know that Federer will continue to play the hyper-aggressive game he has been evolving over the past year, and has seemingly perfected in recent weeks; we know that Djokovic will oppose his own impeccable defense and blend of balanced aggression to it. The head-to-head stands at 21-20 in Federer’s favour, but Federer has won two out of their three hard-court meetings in 2015.
Will Federer, at 34, have a better chance to beat Djokovic in a Grand Slam final than on Arthur Ashe Stadium in front of an adoring New York crowd – and claim his 18th major championship? Probably not. It all comes down to emotional and physical fitness, and to execution on the day. In a match of razor-thin margins, one must back the more reliable performer and at the moment, that’s Djokovic.
