Nadal is +300 in the outright winner’s market for the 2010 US Open.
Rafael Nadal is on top of the tennis world and there is enough breathing room between first and second place that he should remain on top of the tennis world for a long time to come. His current ranking is supported mainly by multiple Masters Series titles and 2 Grand Slam titles – none of which have a drop off date that is approaching any time soon.
Here are Nadal’s odds to win outright for the next 4 Grand Slams starting with the 2010 US Open:
2010 US Open: +300 (3/1)
2011 Australian Open: +250 (5/2)
2011 French Open: -225 (4/9)
2011 Wimbledon: +200 (2/1)
As is usually the case with favorites you are either dealing with very minimal value or you are working with odds that have to be considered too short to bet. Roger Federer is a co-favorite for the US Open and the Aussie and if he continues to falter then his price should drift, which may lead to Nadal’s odds shortening. The interdependency between Nadal’s odds and Federer’s should not be ignored by Nadal backers. If you see Federer losing a match to someone like Ernests Gulbis or Albert Montanes in the US Open lead-up then that could very easily mean that Nadal’s odds should be shortening and it would be your cue to act.
However none of the prices above are likely to shorten until at least the late rounds of August’s Canadian Open in Toronto and that means there is no rush to back Nadal at this point. Regarding his longer terms bets, keep in mind that he is an injury prone player so the Slams that are far off in the future are risky plays.
If you want to guarantee that you get something good on Nadal, take him for the US Open now. Last year Nadal made the semifinals at Flushing Meadows and it was Juan Martin Del Potro that knocked him out – a player who will not be in the field this year.
