Pros and cons for picking Nadal at +275 are examined.
The 2010 US Open will start in 4 weeks time as August 30th is the date for the start of the main draw. Currently Rafael Nadal, the world’s number 1 player, is considered the outright favorite at +275 (11/4) with Paddy Power.
Prior to the US Open there is ATP Washington (already underway), the Canadian Masters in Toronto, and the Cincinnati Masters. The results from those events will definitely shape the futures market for the US Open as they are all hard court events.
Nadal has been so dominant for the last few months that it is hard to not take his odds of +275.
Nadal won Monte Carlo, he won Rome, he won Madrid, he won the French Open, and then he won Wimbledon. The only tournament Nadal did not win was London/Queen’s Club (l. to F. Lopez) and you have to think that the reason Rafa lost there was because he didn’t care about it too much. Tournaments at the 250 level do not inspire top ranked players all that often.
The argument in favor of picking Nadal is clear as he has won 33 of his last 34 matches.
The argument against Nadal has to do with less recent history, specifically on the hard court.
Nadal has never won the US Open, he has never made the final, and he does not have any active hard court titles. From 2010 Nadal fell at the Miami Masters (l. to Roddick), he fell at Indian Wells (l. to Ljubicic), he fell at the Aussie (l. to Murray), and he fell at Doha (l. to Davydenko).
Those are the four hard court tournaments that Nadal has contested so far this year and they have all been fruitless in terms of outright championships.
So which streak do you look at? Nadal’s undefeated record in the last 5 tournaments that he has contested and actually cared about (throw out Queen’s Club)? Or do you look at his very real drought of hard court titles that extends back to Indian Wells 2009 (d. Andy Murray)?
There is a genuine dilemma here but the best thing to look at is Nadal’s recent form and simply attribute the lack of hard court titles to the injury problems from 2009/early 2010.
Furthermore, with Roger Federer descending in the rankings and with last year’s champion, Juan Martin Del Potro, a question mark for the 2010 US Open, this could certainly be Nadal’s best chance to complete a career Slam.
Nadal is by no means a lock for the US Open this year and the tournament at Flushing Meadows is certainly a little bit more wide open than it has been in a long time but +275 on Rafa is good to go and he should win in either Toronto or Cincinnati.
Register with Paddy Power to bet on the 2010 US Open – take advantage of their deposit bonus offer to receive free bets that can be used on the men’s draw in Flushing Meadows.
