Verdasco upset Djokovic to reach the final.
Fernando Verdasco deserves full credit for making the Monte Carlo Masters final in Monaco as he didn’t just upset Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, Verdasco pummelled Djokovic in straight sets 6-2, 6-2. Impressive as that result was however, Rafael Nadal, Verdasco’s opponent in the final, has been far more impressive in Monte Carlo and that is what the odds reflect as well.
There isn’t a single sportsbook out there that wants even a little bit of money on Nadal as Coral have the best price for Rafa to win the final in Monte Carlo, a price of -850 (2/17) that is way too short to bet. Verdasco, with bet365, has come in priced at +650 (13/2) and Verdasco backers should be happy with that price coming off of such a big upset.
It’s hard to figure out what happened to Djokovic as he was playing better than Verdasco heading into the match but perhaps the Spaniard has upped his game and that is where you can ground at least some hope in backing Verdasco in the final. If you are looking for a straight up pick then Verdasco looks like the only responsible bet to make as with Nadal you would have to bet 17 units just to return 2 as profit. Working with odds that short is just a recipe for disaster: you can pound that kind of price and top up 5 or 6 times in a row and then bam – a surprise upset will drain a HUGE chunk of your bankroll.
The best play to make in this match is to pound Nadal to win in straight sets. Paddy Power and Coral both have him priced at -250 (2/5) to win precisely 2 sets to 0 and the result is highly realistic given how dominant Nadal has been in Monaco, including against stellar clay courters David Ferrer and Juan Carlos Ferrero.
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