Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will meet on Wednesday night from Miami in the quarterfinals for the 2010 Sony Ericsson Open. Nadal has come in as the favorite although he is anything but a lock in this match:
Nadal to win, -166 (5/8), Boylesports
Tsonga to win, +150 (3/2), bet365
One of the biggest wins in Tsonga’s career, if not thee biggest win, was over Rafael Nadal in the 2008 Australian Open semifinals. However since that time Nadal has handled Tsonga fairly well:
Paris Masters 2009
Nadal wins 7-5, 7-5
Rotterdam 2009
Nadal wins 6-4, 6-7, 6-4
Indian Wells 2008
Nadal wins, 6-7, 7-6, 7-5
The two players can be viewed as almost evenly matched as their sets are usually quite close although when push has come to shove in the past, Nadal has had the goods in their most recent encounters.
Both players have quarterfinalist seeds in Miami and neither had to play a first round match. Here are their respective results from the second round on:
Tsonga beats Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, 6-4, 6-3
Tsonga beats Philipp Kohlschreiber, 6-2, 7-5
Tsonga beats Juan Carlos Ferrero, 6-2, 6-2
Nadal beats Taylor Dent, 6-4, 6-3
Nadal beats David Nalbandian, 6-7, 6-2, 6-2
Nadal beats David Ferrer, 7-5, 6-4
Here are those results compiled for sets won and lost and games won and lost: Tsonga (6-0; 37-18); Nadal (6-1; 43-27).
As far as win strength goes both players have played about the same quality of competition in Miami so far but you really have to like Tsonga’s efficiency. Nadal has played an extra set compared to Tsonga and he, Nadal, has had to play 70 games so far while Tsonga has only had to play 55.
As a result Tsonga’s form has to be judged as better and there is an expectation here that Nadal will be the more fatigued player. Those assessments both imply that Tsonga’s odds with bet365 are valuable at +150 (3/2).
Nadal’s head to head record against Tsonga should force you to hesitate pounding that betting line, however this feels like a pure coin toss of a match as the true odds might be EVEN for both players. Taking Tsonga to win straight up with underdog odds is therefore a smart bet to make because the math is on your side.
Set betting prediction: Tsonga wins 2-1 (+400, 4/1; bet365).
There’s nothing unusual about Nadal going out at this stage in a tournament any longer as, with no title in almost a year, quarterfinal and semifinal appearances are the new normal for the Spaniard.
To watch live streaming on Wednesday from the Miami Mastesr simply follow these 3 simple steps:
1. Go to bet365 and sign-up or register (it’s free)
2. Click on Sports > Live Streaming > Tennis
3. Watch Miami Masters matches for free
