Roger Federer makes his return to ATP tennis at the Rome Masters, a tournament that takes place between April 24th and May 8th, 2010 (qualifying has already begun).
Federer is priced as the second favorite at this point with Betfair who have his odds in the outright winner’s market set at +520 (26/5). It is important to note that the price on Federer has one qualification as the odds can be found in the market labelled “Rome Masters Series 1000 – Winner with Nadal”. That implies that there is a chance that Nadal may be missing the Rome Masters, although at this point he is in the draw (Nadal was a very very late scratch from the ATP Barcelona event which concludes on Sunday: Verdasco vs Soderling).
Here are the prices for the top 8 favorites at this point with Betfair (note the market is volatile):
Rafael Nadal: -145 (about 5/7)
Roger Federer: +520 (26/5)
Novak Djokovic: +1150 (23/2)
Robin Soderling: +2200 (22/1)
Fernando Verdasco: +3300 (33/1)
Andy Murray: +4300 (43/1)
Juan Carlos Ferrero: +4300 (43/1)
David Ferrer: +5400 (54/1)
Rafael Nadal definitely appears to be the correct pick in this market due to how intimidating his form was in Monte Carlo earlier in April.
Federer at +520 (26/5) will certainly turn the heads of some of his backers who are used to much shorter odds on the Swiss Maestro however his form is suspect at this point. Federer has been idle since crashing out of Miami to Tomas Berdych and his, Federer’s, earlier loss to Marcos Baghdatis in Indian Wells can’t make you feel any confidence in taking Fed at +520.
The only other price besides Nadal’s that os worth risking is Novak Djokovic’s price +1200. However if you do back Nadal, with odds on the shorter side of EVEN, you can’t really spread too many other bets around so it would be best to sink or swim with Nadal here.
As a final note, Juan Carlos Ferrero and David Ferrer at long odds are much smarter picks than Andy Murray at +4300 (43/1) as the Scot has not been great since losing to Federer in the Australian Open final and he’s not exactly a clay courter when he is at his best anyways.
