Rafa and Fed have not met on tour since the 2009 Madrid final.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both advanced through the semifinals in Madrid on Saturday although both players faced challenges from their respective opponents. Nadal dropped a set to Nicolas Almagro before winning while Federer dropped a set to David Ferrer before advancing.
The Federer match just completed and not all sportsbooks have odds available for the final at time of writing, however Boylesports have their lines up and Nadal has come in as a pretty big favorite at -275 (4/11) while Federer has come in priced at +229 (about 23/10).
The head to head history on clay implies that it will be Nadal that wins the Madrid title this year. This will be the 21st head to head between the two players and Rafa leads the series, which dates back to 2004, 13 to 7. The majority of their 20 matches have been played on clay, the surface in Madrid, and when that surface is isolated Rafa’s lead in head to heads is 9-2 with Federer winning last year’s Madrid final and with a win in Hamburg in 2007 on clay.
Based on the head to heads the price of -275 (4/11) on Nadal looks like a bargain. Federer has been excellent this week as he has faced solid clay court competition in David Ferrer, Ernests Gulbis, and Stanislas Wawrinka but he’s always been an excellent clay courter and even at his best, Nadal’s been better.
A better price may become available with other sportsbooks but anything -350 (2/7) or closer to EVEN and Nadal is certainly worth betting in this match even against Federer.
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