The Padres have been taking some bets in recently but they are still way longer than what they should be.
The San Diego Padres have the best winning percentage in the National League and the third best winning percentage in the Majors. If Tampa Bay keep playing mediocre baseball like they have been for the last couple of weeks, then pretty soon San Diego might have the second best winning percentage overall.
Despite the fact that we are now nearly 100 games into the season, the Padres do not have their fair share of backers.
To win the NLCS the Padres are +1200 (Stan James), the fifth favorite according to betting odds behind 4 teams with inferior winning percentages. To win the World Series the Padres are the 11th favorite at +2800 (28/1) with BetFred and even the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that is 6 games back of their division lead and currently out of the Wild Card spot, are considered a heavier favorite than the Padres.
The odds on the Padres have been shortening in the last month and a bit however you should be betting them now before they shorten further. A team winning nearly 60% of their games nearly 100 games into the season should not be +2800 for the World Series title, especially when they would have home field advantage due to the result of the All Star game.
Taking a quick look at the team the offense is mainly generated by Adrian Gonzalez. His OPS is a team high .919 and while there are better players in that category in the National League, Petco Park is not the friendliest park for hitters in the Major Leagues so Gonzalez’ numbers are therefore a bit more impressive than what their face values suggest. Look for Gonzalez to finish in the top 4 for the National League MVP voting at year’s end.
After Gonzalez there is not much offense to look at although Nick Hundley has an OPS of .747 which is good for his position (catcher). Chris Denorfia and Aaron Cunningham have both batted well in limited action this year as well.
The main strength of the Padres is their pitching and the story so far is Mat Latos, a 22 year old starting righty who is 10-4 on the season. With a WHIP of .966 he is by far the best starting pitcher on the Padres although there are bullpen pitchers having great seasons as well.
Heath Bell, Luke Gregerson, Edward Mujica, and Mike Adams all make regular appearances out of the bullpen and they all have fewer hits than innings pitched.
If the Padres were to get another hitter without sacrificing defense and if they were able to improve their worst starting pitcher (Kevin Correia, ERA 5.09) to something average then a World Series championship could be heading their way.
Things as they are their odds still have good value but if they don’t make a move to improve they could easily get outdueled in a post-season series.
I recommended the Padres to win the NL West early on in the season at +3000 and those odds now have incredible value. Now the Padres need some backers in the NLCS market and +1200 is still good to go for this team, although it was +2800 about a month ago.